I love this kind of thing, and I'm going to disagree with this one:
2016, Holographic Versatile Disc (HVD) replaces Blu-Ray
This isn't going to happen. In fact Blu-Ray will never even replace the DVD. DVDs will be replaced by digital downloads and streaming. Consumers are driven by convenience, and the most convenient way to move bits to your home is not via a disc.
In 2000, Super Audio CD was in a format war with DVD-audio. Who won? The MP3 did. It completely baffles me that the movie industry goes ahead to repeat history with HD-DVD vs Blu-Ray. Neither of them will win.
I understand your point, however, I'm sure the introduction of Blu-ray HD-DVD made sense from a business standpoint for the entertainment industry, it will take a while before bandwidth/storage makes them irrelevant on a worldwide basis. So while HVDs might be made irrelevant before they even reach the public on a wide scale, I doubt you can say the same for Blu-ray.
For interesting values of "win." It's the format that's being distributed (as opposed to HD-DVD), but DVDs are still the more common format. (No statistics, just comparisons of DVD and Blu-ray sections at local retailers. DVD's always bigger.)
Meanwhile, the only people I know who've bought any Blu-ray discs are those who own a PS3 and essentially got the player for free with the game console they were buying.
Sure, I agree with you. (When I say win, I was referring to HD-DVD vs Blu-ray). But what I'm saying is that it's too early to call Blu-ray a failure. It may well serve it's purpose quite well before streaming HD video inevitably becomes ubiquitous throughout the world.
I think the difference of opinion here is that some posters are evaluating Blu-ray against DVD, whereas I'm mainly viewing it as a transition format until bandwidth catches up, rather than the jump which was VHS->DVD.
2016, Holographic Versatile Disc (HVD) replaces Blu-Ray
This isn't going to happen. In fact Blu-Ray will never even replace the DVD. DVDs will be replaced by digital downloads and streaming. Consumers are driven by convenience, and the most convenient way to move bits to your home is not via a disc.
In 2000, Super Audio CD was in a format war with DVD-audio. Who won? The MP3 did. It completely baffles me that the movie industry goes ahead to repeat history with HD-DVD vs Blu-Ray. Neither of them will win.