Good people of HN, could anyone tell me why buying an MVP of a social network for $10K from a Belarusian contractor on Upwork (it couldn’t cost much more, it’s like five SQL tables and a web CRUD) and then charging users $2/month to use it wouldn’t work?
Why does the author need to moan about how morally destructive it was to raise VC? Just run your social network from your bedroom, while asking ChatGPT how to rewrite the landing page in React.
> and then charging users $2/month to use it wouldn’t work?
Commenters all across the internet will say they’d pay good money for a site that does something specific that sounds like a good idea.
Then when the site is built, you will discover that they will not, in fact, pay any money for it at all. You will continue to add the features they request and the goalposts will continue to move.
Social networks are even more difficult to bootstrap because they’re not worth paying for if you can’t find people to socialize with. Nobody wants to sign up for an empty social network.
Even the free social networks have a hard time getting started. There were dozens of Twitter competitors created after Twitter was acquired, but most of them languished. The few that have survived have their own problems that are driving many of their own fans away.
Sorry to mumble, I'll add one more thing. Back in 2013, I was running a productivity startup, and we tried courting Evernote into acquiring us (unsuccessfully, though damn we were a good match). I remember those times vividly: Evernote raises a sizeable fraction of a billion in funding in several rounds, employs like 400 people, their CEO goes to places like Le Web or whatever and expatiates from stage about building a "100 year company".
Fast forward to 2022: Evernote itself is acquired by a random app studio, and the whole service is now run by something like a dozen people. The CEO of what used to be a "100 year company" moved on.
I thought about this a lot. They never needed those 400 employees, even in 2013, it was absolutely possible to run the same service with a tiny team, it's just that the people at the company's top would be completely different people with completely different aptitude towards building their businesses. It's only if you really, really want to be on stage at Le Web, then you go to investors over and over again and convince them and yourself that a note-taking app needs 400 employees, and you're building a company as a product, not a product as a product.
Looks like the author of the original article here also didn't actually want to build a social network business but rather wants to be in the hothouse of Silicon Valley. Well, good luck to them.
Maybe they needed the staff to build the software back then and now they could be leaner cos the product is already built. Maintaining is much easier than building.
In all honesty, it doesn't seem like 400 people were really needed to build the software. If you just look at credits in Adobe Premiere, for example, there's not 400 people in there, and it's a way more complex product than what Evernote is/was.
Given how many complaints about Google search you regularly see on this website and elsewhere, you would think there will be a lot more people willing to pay for non shitty search. And yet Kagi does not have enough paying users to fill a football stadium. To me, this validates GP’s point about how people love to talk about paying for services and then proceed to not pay for any services.
Kagi doesn't have network effects stacked against them. If your friends don't use Kagi, you still benefit from it. The same is not true for social media.
The whole idea of running your company while thinking about TAM and whatever is totally from a VC playbook. If you don’t take VC funding, you stop caring about TAM. Instead, you care about whether having the profit you have makes you — yes, you, personally — comfortable about your life. This is a much, much healthier line of thinking than trying to capture every bloody dollar in this world you can reach.
trying to capture every bloody dollar in this world you can reach is the VC part. Looking and making sure that there's a market for the widget your factory produces is just due diligence.
You description is probably spot on, but boy I’d love to have a version of Instagram where I could just pay $5/month and get a time-sorted stream of photos of my friends’ babies, Piña coladas with a beach background, and sweaty mirror selfies in a gym without any stupid ads in the middle.
People pay for software all the time. Hell I pay $30/month for a fucking email client (Superhuman). But no one has tried it for a social network. I think the problem is that people think a social network is worthless unless you hit Twitter scale, but perhaps lots of smaller, focused social networks at $2/pop could work. People are now saying that Discord is being enshittified, right on schedule. Maybe there's an opportunity to poach some communities.
Well obviously some people would pay. The hurdle that a company needs to clear is getting enough people to pay to support both an engineering staff and the infrastructure costs.
Do the math on how many people are necessary to run a web site with on-call rotation, minimum moderation, and someone to run the business. The number of $2/month subscription required to make that work is prohbitively high.
> but perhaps lots of smaller, focused social networks at $2/pop could work
Even large, free, well-funded social networks are failing to get significant traction or running into echo chamber problems (Bluesky).
I've been hearing for years that a paid social network would work, but if the unpaid social network competitors can't get any traction, what makes you think adding a $2/month signup hurdle would improve the situation?
If you want to see a real-world example of people squirming out of their claims that they'd pay for ad-free services, take a look at any HN thread discussing YouTube premium or their ad-block evasion efforts. The price for ad-free YouTube is reasonable for as much as people watch it, yet when cornered the same audiences who claimed they'd pay for an ad-free version suddenly come up with a multitude of new excuses for why they're refusing to pay. My personal favorite claim (which invariably surfaces in every thread) is when people say they would happily pay for YouTube premium if they weren't so aggressive about adblockers.
Do the math on how many people are necessary to run a web site with on-call rotation, minimum moderation, and someone to run the business. The number of $2/month subscription required to make that work is prohbitively high.
Is this really so? Let's try doing the math: you're describing a distributed team of maybe 10 people, likely less. Let's assume you need $600K/year to run this business (is this the right number? not sure, feel free to correct me). At $2/month, that requires 25000 paying users.
Difficult, but not impossible. At $5/month (the $3 difference wouldn't trigger any price sensitivity, talking from real experience) that's 10000 users. If your service actually provides value, you can crank it even higher. Again, difficult, but totally within the realm of possible.
if the unpaid social network competitors can't get any traction, what makes you think adding a $2/month signup hurdle would improve the situation?
Because the "traction" needed to make free and paid social network work is vastly different. You need insane scale (millions or tens of millions of users) to make free social network viable, hell, my stomach hurts from only thinking about it. A paid social network business, run with certain austerity, can be profitable with one thousand paid users.
The hard part is how to acquire that 10000 paying users and how to make them stay.
I think a the problem is for every social media user who finds it valuable enough to pay, there are ten more who don’t use it enough justify paying. And if you only serve the first group but not the later, then the first group will just get bored and move back to X or Instagram, or they just ditch social media entirely and move into private group chats. And if you serve the later then your operation expenses will multiply.
> Do the math on how many people are necessary... you're describing a distributed team of maybe 10 people, likely less. Let's assume you need $600K/year to run this business
Using the heuristic that HR costs are 2x the gross salary, the 10 people are earning 30K/year gross salary (no bonus). And I'm not leaving any room to pay for the compute/storage infra.
> The price for ad-free YouTube is reasonable for as much as people watch it
Perhaps for you (in the US, I assume). The price is the same everywhere in the world, wages aren't. If you've the choice between paying for food and ad-blocking YouTube, or paying YouTube but having no money for food, the choice is obvious. Just like people here claiming Photoshop is an affordable piece of software...
i think that people vastly overstate the costs of this sort of thing and it's super bizarre. if you're treating this as a big official corporation™ and such and want to pay 500 devs like $200k/year or something to make work, then yeah you're gonna have problems.
but if you want to build a social network and aren't dreaming of being gazillionaires for it (which is quite reasonable), then you can get by very easily. how do I know this? because... well it's being done successfully. not was done successfully, is done successfully.
you can probably even get people to help out on it.
you can build a social network with a dedi running nginx hosting your Python application running on a Linux box backed against Postgres (and redis for session storage, although even that is a bit overkill) for like $80/month deployed with a "deploy.sh" script that you run to kick the damn thing into running (Docker is used in dev only, but could easily work here). should you probably add health checks or whatever? yeah. it still works really well.
this scales well past the 100k users mark.
what about video/images/etc? well, this nginx server happily sends out user uploaded video storing them as files on a bog standard ext4 filesystem. backups exist of the site.
the "stack" i mentioned here isn't fancy or particularly tightly optimized, it's in fact pessimized in a lot of ways. hell I know there were a gazillion ways we could improve performance of our application. show the backend app to a game dev and they'd probably want to start strangling people with how poorly optimized most of the actual app is.
and still, it scales well.
again, I stress that this isn't some theoretical idea, this is actively being executed. the entire venture makes money for the team from the users who willingly (and unforcibly in order to use the service, the actual site is free to use in its full form) give money. this isn't ZFS. this isn't Rust. this isn't using some blue-green deployment. this isn't spending hours toiling away at which sysctl to set to squeeze every last cycle out of each box. this isn't behind some massive CDN with "internet scale" boxen or even (for the video serving part) behind any anti-DDoS service.
it's just a matter of doing actual engineering and being willing to actually build the things you want to build.
I like stories like these, but I think you just never hit a breaking point with the infra and approaches you got. You've never exceeded your ext4 volume size, so no need for object storage. You've never had a server die, so one dedi box is fine. You've never had a paying customer call you with an issue, so oncall support is not needed.
yeah, i mean i guess what i'm trying to say is that the breaking point is very far up there as computers have gotten towards breakneck speeds, especially on the technology side, for the goal being achieved. it's downright difficult to hit the limits unless you're throwing effectively a DDoS at it.
i think the big thing though is that it's a community and so people are actually willing to support that even if it means the amount of 9s of availability is slightly fewer (although in practice, many providers bust right through their "9s" SLAs without a care in the world) and given a migration from a VM provider to the dedi occurred, migrations obviously can happen if failure presents itself.
Ning, Substack, OnlyFans, Nostr, mirror.xyz, Farcaster are paid social networks, among others. It's been tried, with varying degrees of success based on user base.
But people are cheap as fuck. Even here we post links to archive.is to get around paywalls (which rubs me the wrong way). Every time YouTube Premium come up the comments are full of people saying they won't pay up.
I’m not going to pay for something and still be the product. These sites would have to be fundamentally different from what they are today, for me to justify paying for them, starting with: they should not be collecting, selling, or profiting off of data about me. They should also not be deciding for me what ways I can use their products.
People bemoan “nobody’s willing to pay for an online newspaper” and that’s true: they won’t pay for them in their current user-monetizing form. Same with YouTube: I’m not going to pay for an ad-free YouTube in its current form: with auto-playing next videos, algorithmic recommendations, Shorts, and sponsored content embedded in some creators’ videos. Give me a different, better product that does not try to monetize me, and I might pay for it.
Only if people pay. Which they won't when there's nobody else on there. How do you get your first 100k users?
You might say, well, start with 1000 users. But 1000, or 10,000 isn't enough to make a social network interesting. Maybe you could get around this by making it about a specific niche to start with. But that probably won't work, and if it does, you'll end up stuck in that niche.
On the other hand, I don't think this idea is as impossible as people say it is. It's just highly unlikely to be successful, and far more complicated than simply paying someone on Upwork to make it for you.
If you’re not trying to make a business out of it, you don’t even need that much money. You could set up a Mastodon server and invite your friends. It might not get a lot of attention, but it will work.
If you want to launch a big viral marketing campaign, you also need someone who's willing to trade your predictions of future revenue for cash today, and VCs are by definition the people interested in making that trade. For something that depends on network effects, slowly trickling out one new ad every time you get 10 new signups isn't going to work.
It works for a niche (probably a professional one) but not for general population. You'd be hard pushed to get mum and pop to pay for this when FB is free and already has everyone on there. To them your new network seems inferior. It is more expensive and has less friends.
As a fun fact this existed circa 2002 in a big way in the UK. The site was friendsreunited. I'd love to have that back (along with associated hype a 5 quid a year pricing)
Why does the author need to moan about how morally destructive it was to raise VC? Just run your social network from your bedroom, while asking ChatGPT how to rewrite the landing page in React.