Germany appears to be installing ~1.3GW of solar per month, or ~15GW/year. Assuming battery storage picks up, it should not take very long to push their remaining coal generation out of the mix.
Indeed, as long as they keep deploying clean energy, storage, and larger interconnects with neighboring grids, I think these targets are actually far too conservative; Germany could be done with coal by 2030 [1].
Tangentially, the world will be deploying ~660GW of solar per year by the end of this year (2024), and is on track to achieve a 1TW/year deployment rate within 18 months [2] [3]. Good trajectories, just need storage and transmission to pick up the pace.
The idea of going all-in on renewables doesn’t seem like such a bad idea these days. It’s fairly obvious where things are going. Most countries won’t bother with nuclear. The countries that become experts at renewables and battery solutions will be the technology leaders of the world.
I still think Germanys decision was silly and premature. But there’s something to be said at putting 100% of your focus on the technology of the future.
There could be a renaissance of nuclear, but it will be temporary. Eventually advanced geothermal will kill off the only niche nuclear energy has.
The prices are currently going into the other direction, except for south germany. Bavarias dumb leaders will get the bill for their backward thinking.
