In my opinion, the only way it takes 10 years to get there is if all progress stops within the next 30 days.
Because it can literally almost do that stitching libraries together task now, if you give it a compiler and runtime environment and have it iterate on errors. Open AI has said they will release a big update before Christmas. This could include an API. And if we assume a text-only environment. But we already have the first text-to-video models, so we should assume that ChatGPT like systems will be built with multimodal models such that they would include information about UI interactions etc. in the near future. No reason to suppose that those advances would take ten years. We are seeing major improvements every 6-12 months.
Because it can literally almost do that stitching libraries together task now, if you give it a compiler and runtime environment and have it iterate on errors. Open AI has said they will release a big update before Christmas. This could include an API. And if we assume a text-only environment. But we already have the first text-to-video models, so we should assume that ChatGPT like systems will be built with multimodal models such that they would include information about UI interactions etc. in the near future. No reason to suppose that those advances would take ten years. We are seeing major improvements every 6-12 months.