While it's never going to replace the man behind the machine.
It still seems highly likely that "stitching libraries together" development workflows in 10-15 years will involve large amounts of copy-editing the output of large language models.
The trajectory of improvements, from GitHub Copilot to ChatGPT, is too steep.
Web development workflows honestly are often already at the stage of stitching together the output of large language models (Stack Overflow being the most well known such language model). I'm still surprised it pulls the salaries it does.
In my opinion, the only way it takes 10 years to get there is if all progress stops within the next 30 days.
Because it can literally almost do that stitching libraries together task now, if you give it a compiler and runtime environment and have it iterate on errors. Open AI has said they will release a big update before Christmas. This could include an API. And if we assume a text-only environment. But we already have the first text-to-video models, so we should assume that ChatGPT like systems will be built with multimodal models such that they would include information about UI interactions etc. in the near future. No reason to suppose that those advances would take ten years. We are seeing major improvements every 6-12 months.
It still seems highly likely that "stitching libraries together" development workflows in 10-15 years will involve large amounts of copy-editing the output of large language models.
The trajectory of improvements, from GitHub Copilot to ChatGPT, is too steep.