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How candidates can signal sincerity in an era of cynicism (tessexperiments.org)
54 points by PaulHoule on April 20, 2022 | hide | past | favorite | 39 comments


Try https://osf.io/eumn6 for a viewer of the PDF.

(hosting at the Open Science Framework, "a free, open platform to support your research and enable collaboration")


The article isn't loading for me (504 error), so hopefully my headline-based comment isn't too far off-topic:

Now that we know sincerity can be signaled, candidates can now cynically practice being the most sincere.


> "Now that we know sincerity can be signaled, candidates can now cynically practice being the most sincere."

The secret of success is sincerity. Once you can fake that you’ve got it made.” --Jean Giradoux, though variants predate his usage (https://quoteinvestigator.com/2011/12/05/fake-honesty/)


In a book by another French author Rene Girard, it is implied that the above lines of thought are insidious forms of nihilism, for:

Why work for actual success when you can fake it? Etc. Yes. Virtue signaling is a debasement of the currency.

Well, as it turns out, Girards entire oeuvre can be said to be advocating for that ineffective strategy of adopting extreme positions.. (eg if you think that dying on the cross was very ineffective for J. Christ)


I didn't mean to crash their web site!

They consider two interventions: (1) taking an extreme position to signal legitimacy, (2) speaking in moral language.

They found (2) effective, (1) ineffective.


My cynicism of politicians draws a shade over my eyes and I cannot interpret it more charitably: I interpret this to mean, plucking heartstrings works as long as you take no substantive position on the issue. I think this can be seen empirically in Dem leadership communications strategies over the past few years/decades, with all the waffling, pathological centrism, and immediate appeasement of the squeaky wheels among us.


E Unibas Pluram was written in 1990 and is as true now as it was then.

https://jsomers.net/DFW_TV.pdf


It is that hyperreal that Baudrillard and Eco warned you about.


could the hyperreal be understood as a combination between supernormal stimuili [1] and the magnificent bribe [2]?

the hypernormally stimulated bribe?

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supernormal_stimulus

[2] https://reallifemag.com/the-magnificent-bribe/


Mumford's "bribe" was always Faustian in my reckoning. At some maybe unconscious level people know exactly what they're getting into but think they can kick the can down the road. We hope at some unspecified future time the beast can be appeased or tricked.


Supernormal stimulus is related.

Baudrillard would, I think, follow McLuhan in blaming technology and pataphysics (e.g. the 'physics' of fiction) as opposed to "this is a conscious conspiracy to control people". A middle ground is that if CBS didn't do it, NBC would.


I've been in a conversation about "blaming technology" recently, needing to disambiguate amorphous Technology (big-T) and it's possibility of neutrality, from specific malevolent creations. To disambiguate land-mines and AK47s from Penicillin and baby incubators.

There's a mile of difference between creating an attractive nuisance, a "Trap" to borrow from Adam Curtis, and failing to account for negative side effects. We're still very much in the era of apologetics and rationalisation with regard to knowingly creating controlling, addictive and deleterious technologies. There is a kind of tragic death drive or celebration of Thanatos/atrophy going on there. I actually think the modern word that best captures it is "convenience". (it must be pronounced with a sigh of resignation). :)


Obligatory famous apocryphal quote: "The secret of success is sincerity. Once you can fake that you’ve got it made."


Link doesn't load, so with only the title to go on...

It feels like it's implying that sincere is the opposite of cynical? But someone (me) could be sincerely cynical. Or falsely optimistic.

In any case, signaling sincerity sounds a bit like fighting for peace, and doesn't give me high hopes for this article whenever we do get to find out what it says.

(It _is_ sort of fun to have this playground though, where we can all just freely admit we didn't read the article, and riff off the title alone)


I don't think they intend sincerity to be the opposite of cynicism. I think the idea is that people, being cynical, will assume that you are insincere. Presumably, TFA tells you how to avoid that.

So if you are sincerely cynical, how would people tell you that they are being sincere (when your assumption is that they are not)?

No idea, since I can't read TFA either.


since most of us are getting 504, here's google's cached version: http://www.tessexperiments.org/study/clifford1222


I'm afraid, gumby, that you have given us the original URL unmodified. This is Google's Cache on it https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:HvJpfF... but it sadly delivers me nothig.


It turns out that your google cache page doesn't render the page, but the retrieved source does actually contain all of the content. If you view page source, you get:

How Candidates Can Signal Sincerity in an Era of Cynicism

---------------------------------------------------------

[[Download data and study materials from OSF]](https://osf.io/rj3aw/)

Principal investigators:

Scott Clifford

University of Houston

*Email:* scliffor\@central.uh.edu

*Homepage:* <https://scottaclifford.com/>

Elizabeth Simas

University of Houston

*Email:* ensimas\@uh.edu

*Homepage:* <https://www.elizabethsimas.com/>

\

*Sample size:* 769

*Field period:* 01/03/2020-06/26/2020

Abstract

Partisan polarization has reached historical highs, while politicians' credibility has reached historical lows. For example, recent polls suggest that as few as 8% of Americans think that politicians believe most of the stances that they take on issues. This extreme level of cynicism threatens to break a fundamental link in representation. If candidates cannot credibly convey their positions, then voters cannot evaluate them on policy. Yet, we know little about the strategies politicians might take to convey the credibility of their claims. In this paper, we investigate whether politicians can signal credibility by taking extreme positions or by justifying their stances in moral terms. Across three experiments, we show that moral justifications tend to enhance credibility, while extreme positions do not. In a fourth study, we show that while extreme stances increase polarization in candidate ratings, moral justifications do not. Taken together, our findings suggest that moral justifications are a useful strategy to enhance credibility without contributing to rising levels of polarization.

Hypotheses

- H1: Candidates taking extreme issue positions will be perceived as more sincere.

- H2: Issue stances justified with moral language will be perceived as more sincere.

Experimental Manipulations

A within-subjects vignette experiment. Respondents will be asked to evaluate three hypothetical politicians, each taking a stance on a particular issue. Within each candidate profile, the stance will be randomly assigned to one of four conditions in a 2x2 design. The stance will be either extreme or moderate and moral or pragmatic.

Outcomes

An index of the following questions:

- Do you think this candidate truly believes in {stance}, or is just saying what some people want to hear?

- In your opinion, how committed do you think this candidate is to {stance}?

- In your opinion, how likely is it that this candidate will be a leader on {stance}?

- In your opinion, how likely do you think it is that this candidate will flip-flop on {stance} in the future?

Summary of Results

As expected, the moral justification is perceived as significantly more credible than the pragmatic justification (b = .02, p = .002). The extreme position, on the other hand, is seen as slightly, but not significantly less credible than the more moderate position (b = -.007, p = .295). Thus, consistent with Study 1, moral justifications increase credibility, but extreme positions do not. Additionally, we find no evidence of an interaction between the treatments.

References

Paper presented at the the 2019 Texas American Politics Symposium (TAPS).


This link from there to a viewer with the PDF is up for now: https://osf.io/eumn6


Thanks for correcting for my cut/paste brain damage!


Getting a 504 over here, and doesn't appear to be available at archive.org.


What we need is a way to inhibit lying. A brain operation or some kind of psychological conditioning.

People who undergo this procedure will be guaranteed trustworthy.

They will be given a mark. A forehead-tattoo.

Certain roles in our society - certain jobs and offices - will be available only to those with this mark.

I would vote for a person with this mark.


It's genuinely horrifying to me that people appear to be upvoting the creation of a subhuman caste and delegating responsibility to them. Please think this through a bit more carefully, it's an interesting thought experiment but a terrible idea.

Consider also that not being able to lie is absolutely not the same thing as being trustworthy. If we've learned anything the last two years, it's that people can deeply believe some shocking things.


It's pretty heavily downvoted by now, but I took the comment as a pretty clear https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Modest_Proposal scenario.



Greg Egan explores this idea too. In his Quarantine. From the perspective of a guy who was involuntarily programmed for loyalty. Interesting stuff.

Stephen R Donaldson also touches the subject a little in his gap stuff.

Of course these days we'd probably mark them with an RFID chip. Just beneath the back of the skull, in the spine, right next to the microbomb.

(Keep getting that god damn you're posting too fast bullshit. Thank Hacker News for protecting you from bad thoughts)

(Expand your scifi literacy)


People are, as a rule, conventional and reactionary. And they like to peck at their reflection and bark at shadows. That's people.


> subhuman caste

Politicians that can't lie are objectively better than ones that can. That makes them superhuman, in this case.


I'm getting upvotes?

And what's so subhuman about it? It might be quite freeing and desirable. No more enbeastifying than military indoctrination.

And yes, you could be trusted to not lie. To eschew deceit. That is a highly desirable flavor of trustworthiness.

But yes, trusted to be a member of your particular ideological tribe would involve a completely different program and forehead tattoo, of course.


Could these public servants be subject to being misled? They can tell the truth but they aren't all knowing, they won't necessarily know when they've been lied to.

Could these public servants be become a tool for a more powerful political entity? Perhaps truth is more subjective than we hoped, or perhaps they have been conditioned with a failsafe - to keep them from speaking certain truths.

Could these public servants decide they don't like the life they've been given? They are humans, not mere tools.


Subject to mislement, subversion or change of opinion?

Of course not. The procedure would also induce omniscience

/s


> "And yes, you could be trusted to not lie. To eschew deceit."

Leaving aside that being unable to lie has nothing to do with knowing the truth, that poor wretch would be the most unelectable creature in existence. The voters do not want to hear that "we don't know what the right answer yet", "this solution is the right path in the long run but will cause poverty and suffering today", and other unpalatable truths that are largely unavoidable as part of governing a population.


Sounds like prime material for sci-fi horror


You people are square as delaware I swear.

I can think of a dozen horrible things that are popularly embraced with both hands. And you guys don't even blink.

My idea, otoh, might be awesome.


It works well unless the person with such a mark had their wife kidnapped and the only way to ensure she was no longer being tortured was to tell a lie and cause an entire political dynasty to be wiped out. Well, unless lying once enabled double crossing and the heir to such a dynasty's escape was marked by the person with that mark.


Oh yeah, Yueh. Good call. His conditioning got cracked.


> What we need is a way to inhibit lying.

1. Society already does this; most morality systems discourage lying (with exceptions of course).

2. Could your lobotomized person understand lying? If not, they won't be effective at governing the rest of us lairs. If so, the "lair/truth-teller" logic puzzle applies: they could truthfully report what a liar would say, thereby truthfully lying.

> They will be given a mark. A forehead-tattoo

Does sarcasm count as lying? Does fiction?


Please, the #1 industries, advertising and politics, depend on lying. Some say that the intellect was evolved specifically for lying.

The program would have to address the root of the behavior we're filtering for, of course. intent to maliciously deceive or somesuch.

I recall one scifi where they had a priesthoodesque dealy called "witnesses". Similar idea. Trained for perfect recall and honesty. Wore robes.


The lying part is secondary—no maliciousness is the important part. Maybe what you really want is a “Good” ruler; philosophy and ethics have been wrestling with how to define that for thousands of years. I’d be shocked if such a ruler would have no need to lie, unless they have no internal or external threats (so an all-encompassing autocracy, perhaps like the God Emperor of Dune). Speaking of sci-fi, the Culture novels’ hyper-intelligent AI “Minds” are, AFAIK, “good” rulers with external threats, though I don’t recall the Minds being limited by honesty.

Were you recalling the Fair Witnesses from Heinlein’s Stranger in a Strange Land? (Overly Sarcastic synopsis: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3jAkplrZci0)

Those industries aren’t even top 10: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/10-biggest-industries-world-2...




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