China's only surprise out of this is seeing how weak Russia's military is and how lacking it is operationally and in terms of tech. It's a mess. Putin made a sizable mistake in letting the world see it; it would have been far better to retain the fearsome mirage (ie he should have just focused entirely on taking Donetsk and Luhansk, concentrated the attack solely there; their military could have managed that).
Russia's military being in that condition opens up interesting opportunities for China in the next decade or two. 10-15 more years and China will be far beyond Russia militarily.
>>seeing how weak Russia's military is and how lacking it is operationally and in terms of tech. It's a mess.
Are you referring to Russia's atrocious success in invading Ukraine to date? I thought it was odd too. You'd think if they were really seeking maximum damage there would be no power or communications in Kyev/Kiev and there would be a lot more bloodshed, and perhaps Russia wouldn't have increased gas flow through Ukraine over the past week.
I saw a DPR military soldier interviewed this weekend in a Russian military convey headed west, his comments were not one of those looking to destroy Ukraine and everyone in it. https://youtu.be/-eiNmxCJC4s?t=345
I'm referring to their atrocious incompetence, mediocre supply lines, exceptionally backwards technology, failure to immediately secure absolute control over the sky, rather shockingly poorly trained soldiers, and the general chaos that seems to indicate the command structure has no idea what it's doing.
That Russia would win ultimately is no surprise at all, at least for the invasion stage of things. They have such overwhelming numbers that it should be an inescapable outcome. If they occupy Ukraine with that force, it'll be a disaster for both Russia and the Ukrainian civilian population.
I’m not a military strategist but I have to think that if you see such gaping holes in their military approach then maybe you have some wrong assumptions about their endgame, i.e. we should be smart enough to know that we’re not smarter than the guys that do this for a living.
I'm glad it's not just me sitting with my ignorance and making assumptions. I know the West was going to pump hero stories and "freedom fighter" narratives. But other than that, we haven't seen anything else. If this were the US fighting a similarly overmatched opponent, we would see maps showing how far we've advanced, fronts were there was fighting and such. But we get none of that now, we have no idea of if the Russian army is still stuck at the border, or currently changing the drapes in the Ukranian Oval Office.
I honestly think this would have worked out quite well for Russia if they would have managed to take the Ukraine swiftly. Sure, there would be some sanction, but they could have either sat it out or negotiated down for giving back half of the Ukraine (fir example).
Now, though, his military looks weak and the constant stream of war pictures has forced other countries into harsh actions. He can still get a pyrrhic victory, but for the most part this looks like a lost cause.
That's part of the point. Russia would have moved its military in, secured the territory and formally annexed it into Russia. Victory party. They could have managed that soundly, declared victory, and called it a day. They could have even taken a little bit more territory in the region while they were at it. None of that would have put their military at risk of being revealed to be a mess.
It's barely day 4 with misinformation and fog of war everywhere. There aren't much useful info to extrapolate from other than RU has committed half to two-thirds of low/medium tier units while being fairly restraint in not massacring fellow slavs. Departure from past RU war atrocities - almost kid gloves compared to how western wars (including those prosecuted by RU) slaughter brown people in the ME. Even the internet is still up. RU's massive artillery parks aren't levelling villages and they've barely expended 200 missiles or used much precision munitions (assuming they have any). All capabilities PRC has in abundance.
If there's any lesson to be learned, it would be not to half ass for optics. Western reporting and social platforms seems to have gone full koolaid regardless. And perhaps seriously think about preemption, instead of letting weapons flow in for for weeks while posturing.
I think you're right about the information war kool-aid. If you look at everything in Western outlets from CNN to Funker530, you would think the Ukrainians are standing toe-to-toe and that the invasion is super sloppy.
Ghost of Kyiv, Snake Island, recapturing of Hostomel, downing of 2 IL76s full of paratroopers, death of Magomed Tushaev, UKR leading K:D ratios like war is videogame... unending stream of fake memes and unverified suspicious allegations to push narrative that sloppy invasion = end of Putin, when we're only 4 days in and it doesn't appear RU has taken gloves off. Feels like the information war is currently hotter than the real one, similar to the insane amount of biased coverage for the HK/Belarus protests received in western media, but at the end of the day, I surmise we'll find out shitposts that instills false confidence don't mean much in a shooting war, because ultimately, "power is power".
this is true, but so is the US, and as everybody keeps pointing out, how much better your military is doesn't really matter when it comes to conflicts between nuclear nations.
Ukrainians are turning out to be pretty bad ass freedom fighters.