It's going to be a long while to hit +500km range for $20k. If we assume that Tesla's batteries are around $120/kWh currently (that's generous, I think it's 127), to get 500 km range with the Model 3 would take around 130 kWh (26 kWh/100 mi). That means that the battery alone is going to be $15,000+, which is 75% of your $20k figure.
In my estimation, they'd need to reduce the battery cost down by around 2/3 to reach the vehicle you mention. At current rates of battery cost declines, where battery costs are halving every 4-6 years, we're looking at 2030 or later for a "tens of millions of cars $20k +500km range" vehicle.
That's a long wait, but you don't need 500km range anyway, you can use superchargers to allow a 300km range to do any trip you're interested in.
Range anxiety is not high on the list for Tesla owners, it's mostly about serviceability, overall price, luxury status, and the fact that Tesla is the premium EV by a long shot: no others are close in efficiency and performance in the premium segment.
what about cutting costs in all other areas besides the battery.
An eletric car in it's essence is a quite simple system (especially compared to a gasoline car).
Personally, i think having a minimal car with the bare basics that is electric for a very good price would sell really well in Europe, especially considering that gas prices are high (so people will save money in the lifetime of the vehicle compared to gas) and most people don't see a car as a status symbol.
Creating a cheap, easy to use and maintain electric car for cheap with cheap and easy to manufacter parts would be amazing. It could decimate the "tiny car" (aygo, clio etc) market.
In my estimation, they'd need to reduce the battery cost down by around 2/3 to reach the vehicle you mention. At current rates of battery cost declines, where battery costs are halving every 4-6 years, we're looking at 2030 or later for a "tens of millions of cars $20k +500km range" vehicle.
That's a long wait, but you don't need 500km range anyway, you can use superchargers to allow a 300km range to do any trip you're interested in.
Range anxiety is not high on the list for Tesla owners, it's mostly about serviceability, overall price, luxury status, and the fact that Tesla is the premium EV by a long shot: no others are close in efficiency and performance in the premium segment.