It's going to be a long while to hit +500km range for $20k. If we assume that Tesla's batteries are around $120/kWh currently (that's generous, I think it's 127), to get 500 km range with the Model 3 would take around 130 kWh (26 kWh/100 mi). That means that the battery alone is going to be $15,000+, which is 75% of your $20k figure.
In my estimation, they'd need to reduce the battery cost down by around 2/3 to reach the vehicle you mention. At current rates of battery cost declines, where battery costs are halving every 4-6 years, we're looking at 2030 or later for a "tens of millions of cars $20k +500km range" vehicle.
That's a long wait, but you don't need 500km range anyway, you can use superchargers to allow a 300km range to do any trip you're interested in.
Range anxiety is not high on the list for Tesla owners, it's mostly about serviceability, overall price, luxury status, and the fact that Tesla is the premium EV by a long shot: no others are close in efficiency and performance in the premium segment.
what about cutting costs in all other areas besides the battery.
An eletric car in it's essence is a quite simple system (especially compared to a gasoline car).
Personally, i think having a minimal car with the bare basics that is electric for a very good price would sell really well in Europe, especially considering that gas prices are high (so people will save money in the lifetime of the vehicle compared to gas) and most people don't see a car as a status symbol.
Creating a cheap, easy to use and maintain electric car for cheap with cheap and easy to manufacter parts would be amazing. It could decimate the "tiny car" (aygo, clio etc) market.
In the US most electric cars are charged on the driveway or in the garage. Most Europeans don't have these.
I'm generalizing of course, but it's a significant difference. Most folks I know would have to run a cable across the sidewalk. Electric is only going to work if all the supermarkets and pubs etc etc have fast chargers. Or maybe they put them into lamp posts.
Running electricity cables to streetside parking spaces and parking lots near apartment buildings is now considered key infrastructure that the EU governments are rolling out. It's slow at the moment, but we'll get there.
In Europe at least regular outlet charging should be more viable than in the US. A typical installation is 230V with 16A breaker, which will charge a car twice as fast as typical 120V/15A installation. Thus, there is less pressing need to do installation upgrades for electric cars in Europe, running a long cord will be good enough most of the time.
1 phase 16A is still not really good - only ~3.6 kW at best. But 230V still makes the cabling easier to handle and 3-phase power is common in residential buildings (at least in parts of Europe), so 11 kW (3x16A) or 22 kW (3x32A) are usual sizes for electric car chargers at homes.
Bigger restriction on that is how many people don't live in homes where they can just install a charger, but rather in apartments with either no charging or no dedicated parking at all.
Right, electric cars are too inconvenient for most apartment dwellers, but contrary to a popular impression, there are lots of Europeans who live in single family houses. Additionally, even residents of rural European areas are driving much less on average than rural Americans, simply because what counts for rural in most of Europe is already denser than rural America, especially in the west portion of it.
I think the biggest reason for relatively slow adoption of electric cars in Europe is simply that most European are significantly poorer than most Americans, while also having to pay high taxes and fees. Median household income in Mississippi is almost 50% higher than median household income in France, for example, and this is compounded by higher taxes in France.
Many live in single family homes, yes, but in the UK at least they very often have shared street parking across a pavement (a sidewalk). That is why I was thinking lampposts.
There are new EU laws regarding charging infrastructure, which is not going to solve everything really, but help.
Pretty much all new buildings will require the infrastructure for charging at every parking spot, if you have parking inside the building. Buildings that undergo major renovations will also have this requirement. But actually charging points / boxes you have to install is a bit lower if I remember, only 1 per parking lot or something.
Thankfully these laws will also be applied retroactively from 2025, so all old buildings have to get their act together by then. These laws do not apply to singe family homes.
Yeah my wife and I live in an apartment building in a mid-major city on the US east coast and we looked into a PHEV (wanted the tax credit), but it just wasn't workable. I looked for garages and lots with charging stations but couldn't find one.
In effect the tax credit seems like a subsidy for detached single family homes, since I really don't see how you can swing it any other way.
This is not just the case in the US, in the EU the same problem exists for city dwellers. Around my place there is even some wealth discrimination going on as the city will build charging pole only if there is sufficient non-subsidized living space available in the neighborhood (because poor people cant accumulate wealth apparently) and you need to buy the vehicle first after which they will place a charging pole within 12 months. So you need a drive lane or garage or charge it somewhere else.
