You've gone from there being only a "remote chance" that the rules were followed, and "I don't trust anyone involved" - to there being "a chance" that they were broken.
Under common interpretations of those phrases, that's a massive swing in your confidence levels.
Sorry for being unclear. My personal position is agnostic. I do not know if they're being earnest. At the same time i can imagine ways of this going down that would make it worthwhile for all parties involved to lie. This means my expected result is indeed "they lied", but i have no strong conviction in this.
I also misspoke in my earlier comment, i meant "remote chance of knowing that any rules were followed". I didn't mean to imply any confidence on the size of the chance, since we actually don't know enough to make such a judgement call.
Under common interpretations of those phrases, that's a massive swing in your confidence levels.