"What's the realistic life expectancy of modern hardware?"
Lower that it used to be. The design life for the Ford EEC-IV engine control system from the 1980s was 30 years. The program is mask-programmed onto the chip, and the parameter table is in a fuse-blowing type ROM. Many of those are still on the road.
With newer hardware, lifetimes are shorter. This is a big problem for long-lived military systems.[1] Electromigration becomes more of a problem as IC features get smaller.
There are embedded systems where 30-50 years of operation is needed. Pumping stations, HVAC, railroad signals, etc. have equipment which can run for decades with occasional maintenance. The NYC subway is still using century-old technology for signaling. It's bulky, but works well.
Lower that it used to be. The design life for the Ford EEC-IV engine control system from the 1980s was 30 years. The program is mask-programmed onto the chip, and the parameter table is in a fuse-blowing type ROM. Many of those are still on the road.
With newer hardware, lifetimes are shorter. This is a big problem for long-lived military systems.[1] Electromigration becomes more of a problem as IC features get smaller.
There are embedded systems where 30-50 years of operation is needed. Pumping stations, HVAC, railroad signals, etc. have equipment which can run for decades with occasional maintenance. The NYC subway is still using century-old technology for signaling. It's bulky, but works well.
[1] http://mil-embedded.com/articles/obsolete-cycle-costing-you/