> According to the headline (and also economic theory and extensive empirical evidence), rent control hurts renters. On the other hand, Prop 13 does not.
I think (guessing a bit here) is that the argument goes like this: repealing Prop 13 would drive down house prices, allowing some renters to instead buy/mortgage, therefore reducing the demand for rentals, driving rents down.
By increasing supply, I would imagine, at the expense of older, retired home owners. In my community, there are a lot of old people that wouldn't be able to afford a fraction of my property tax. Many would be forced to sell and there would be a glut on the market of new homes, which would likely drive prices down.
I hate paying the property tax rate I do, but I would also hate to drive all the old people of my community to cheap, depressed housing stock in some remote place.
You're mistaken in your mechanism: it reduces demand. Repealing prop 13 should drive down prices by increasing the total cost of ownership. Suppose you can afford to pay $3000/mo for housing. If your tax bill is $500, that leaves $2500 for a mortgage payment. Higher taxes, less is leftover for a mortgage. With a $500/mo tax your maximum mortgage is $530k. If it rises to $700/mo, your maximum mortgage falls to $486k. The whole pool of people with a $3000/mo reserve have been pushed down the curve.
Those people could use the equity they've amassed in their property to pay the property tax, such as through a reverse mortgage. Although "house poor", don't forget they are still quite wealthy.
It would make sense for governments to formalize this arrangement and allow deferring of property tax payments until the house is sold.
I think (guessing a bit here) is that the argument goes like this: repealing Prop 13 would drive down house prices, allowing some renters to instead buy/mortgage, therefore reducing the demand for rentals, driving rents down.