Since Apple's software isn't open source, it's possible they're lying. However, if they are, at some point the government is going to try to present evidence they gleaned through this lie, and that fact will leak out.
I think it would be an enormous risk for Apple to blatantly lie about something they put in black and white on their website. So I tend to think they're telling the truth.
Maybe one day, we'll get a real, bonafide, non-niche open source based phone where these things can be audited.
But this isn't just about the FBI. It's about all of law enforcement. Sure, the FBI may be practiced enough to hide the facts of discovery, but will every law enforcement agency in the US be as adept. If Apple is lying, or law enforcement finds a way to circumvent the encryption, it will most likely leak at some point, an leaks are becoming more and more common, especially with highly visible targets like Apple and Google (both blackhats and white hats are itching to show up the tech giants).
Granted, both are under the Attorney General (formerly Eric Holder)... but Holder's recent MO has been to improve race relations between the Police Agencies and the general public. (See his exceptional handling of Ferguson... but his less-than-exceptional handling of "Fast and Furious")
I appreciate the criticism actually. But lets look at this rationally.
When the FBI sent in 40 agents to a town with only 52 cops, to investigate a single murder... Eric Holder was sending a very strong message to the Ferguson community.
Remember, Ferguson Police and the St. Louis Police were the bad guys in Ferguson. The FBI came in with their Black leader (at the time: Eric Holder) and reassured the community that the African American President (and African American-led FBI) got their back.
Eric Holder then announced that the 40 Agents were going to hold an independent investigation and conduct a 3rd independent autopsy.
With the FBI's arrival, the riots immediately stopped and trust was restored.
Now true, the Ferguson Police and St. Louis Police were _absolutely_ terrible. But the Federal response (specifically FBI's under direct order of Eric Holder) was extremely effective and exemplary IMO.
Remember, we have a federal system in the US. Cities are independent of the county, counties are independent of the state, and states are independent of the nation. Eric Holder holds no responsibility for the poor behavior of Ferguson City cops or St. Louis County Cops. But... he was able to use the FBI's influence to pressure the local cops to do the right thing.
Remember too: Eric Holder does not have the authority to prosecute Darren Wilson on murder or assault. The best the FBI can do is prosecute him (and the police department) on racism charges. Murder / Assault is a charge that can only be delivered from the local government in this case. For the most part, the Feds don't have much legal authority over the situation.
Since Apple's software isn't open source, it's possible they're lying. However, if they are, at some point the government is going to try to present evidence they gleaned through this lie, and that fact will leak out.
I think it would be an enormous risk for Apple to blatantly lie about something they put in black and white on their website. So I tend to think they're telling the truth.
Maybe one day, we'll get a real, bonafide, non-niche open source based phone where these things can be audited.