This is exactly what I meant by "you'll fool yourself into believing things that aren't true." You cannot reason about the price of bitcoin in terms of fundamentals.
Wherever there is perceived value, you can reason about fundamentals, it is just how the world works.
But what fools we were to think our theories mattered back in November, when the price was almost entirely due to Mt. Gox's market manipulation!
You invested in a time of great volatility, and got hurt. That doesn't mean the game is broken. That MtGox manipulated the market is irrelevant. If something appreciates 10x in 3 months, that's volatile and it's your fault for investing when you did not know the full reason behind that volatility.
I don't say "It's bad of course" as some sort of guess, it's pure logical reasoning. I am not saying it is necessary that the balance goes down. Combine the information of the logical effect of this event with the actual effect that lies in the past and you can say that there was a likely relation.
I think you're mistaken about what a "fundamental" is. Bitcoin is speculation. It's also the kind of speculation where you'll never be able to logically deduce the expected outcome, because you'll never have the proper information to make correct decisions (unless you're friends with someone like Karpeles).
Here's an example of a fundamental:
By looking at the economics of a business, the balance sheet, the income statement, management and cash flow, investors are looking at a company's fundamentals, which help determine a company's health as well as its growth prospects. A company with little debt and a lot of cash is considered to have strong fundamentals.
There are more kinds of fundamentals, of course. But all of them have a common theme: publicly available information, or logical reasoning (which depends on having publicly available information).
Bitcoin's market value is determined by insiders who hide all information from you. Therefore, there are no fundamentals right now. Not until the price is determined by something other than people like Karpeles.
You invested in a time of great volatility, and got hurt. That doesn't mean the game is broken. That MtGox manipulated the market is irrelevant.
I doubt most investors would agree. Gamblers, perhaps, since at that point "the game" is literally gambling, not investing.
I don't say "It's bad of course" as some sort of guess, it's pure logical reasoning. I am not saying it is necessary that the balance goes down. Combine the information of the logical effect of this event with the actual effect that lies in the past and you can say that there was a likely relation.