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If it were so simple. Historians know about even older questionable decisions, even the U.S. generals claimed that in 1945 Japan would have surrendered very soon even without the nuclear bombardments:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Debate_over_the_atomic_bombings...



Also see Dulles brothers story. Fascinating interview here: http://www.npr.org/2013/10/16/234752747/meet-the-brothers-wh...




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