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For the general audience total confidence always beats the person who delivers a confidence interval.

Hedgehogs also beat foxes, despite the obvious difference in prediction accuracy in favor of foxes.




Perhaps the answer is a kind of confident non-confidence. "I have studied this problem and am about 70% confident that the answer is this, and I am confident there's not enough information available to be more certain than that. If anyone tells you they know the answer for certain, they are probably trying to sell you something."


I think this is a really valuable approach to try, thank you.


Yeah I was actually considering that as well, in terms of how information evolves. Whatever is best at spreading will spread.




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