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There's a critical difference between smartphones and planes, which is that a smartphone is better than a computer and a phone in some ways. It's more portable than a computer, which means you can use it in situations where neither a phone nor a computer will work, because the phone doesn't have the necessary functions and the computer is too big.

There is, I would argue, no situation where a roadable airplane is better than a normal airplane plus a car. It doesn't have to be better than both in all cases, but it has to be better than both for something.

For a smartphone, that "something" is extreme portability while still providing some computer functionality. A phone+computer doesn't let you reasonably read your e-mail while standing on a bun, for example.

I've yet to see any similar case for "flying cars".




Look through the pre-iPhone pre-3G "smartphones" and the number of years they were in production to from the late 90s onward

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smartphone#History

They were shitty "computers" and very expensive phones. People had been predicting that they would happen for the longest time, and until the iPhone it pretty much seemed like nothing more than a geek dream.

Regarding the roadable car - I can imagine a fantastic use-case for commuters [on okay-weather days]. Let's say you want to live 100 miles from Boston or SF but would be looking at a brutal morning commute. But if some future-model was safe/fast/efficient/less expensive and there was infrastructure to land, all of a sudden you have a real use case.

Now the one in this video looks positively dangerous. But it doesn't mean down the road there can't be one that flies completely autonomously in most weather and can land on short runways in convenient locations in the middle of a city - that you can just drive off into a parking spot. Maybe it starts by costing as much as a tesla roadster.

I don't imagine any of this will actually happen, but if somebody can get you a roadable airplane for $100,000 that flies itself, it becomes a lot more interesting.


> They were shitty "computers" and very expensive phones. People had been predicting that they would happen for the longest time, and until the iPhone it pretty much seemed like nothing more than a geek dream.

But phones were getting smaller, and more featureful year after year so it made sense to make that prediction.

No similar trend exists in planes/cars that I know of.


There actually is a similar trend in cars. They're getting more featureful and larger. Which of course means they're trending ever further away from being able to double as practical aircraft.


How is your 100-mile use case any better with a roadable airplane than with a separate car and airplane?




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