I think the problem is that this niche, is really only worth the maybe $10M that have roughly been given so far. The niche consists of developers, who are happy to produce all the apps they need for themselves (since the app market is at 0), they like Ubuntu (since this is really what they have now chosen to buy into, they want to give up their current phone and laptop setup in no less than 30 days max, and last but not least; is ready to shell out $800+ for a non-existing phone, that could be out of date by the time its in their hands.
To me that sounds like an incredibly tiny fraction of the smartphone market. If I were Canonical, I would use this as a survey, that tells you that you've got X amount of people ready to shell out $10M within 30 days of announcement. Surely the rest of the money could be earned from people who are aren't looking to change phone right now, and maybe wants to test the waters by seeing it in video reviews or in stores, and then pay the price. After all, isn't that what companies do? Take risks, and get rewarded if it works, instead of this extremely carefull investment (even Apple is more risky with its money for crying out loud).
To me that sounds like an incredibly tiny fraction of the smartphone market. If I were Canonical, I would use this as a survey, that tells you that you've got X amount of people ready to shell out $10M within 30 days of announcement. Surely the rest of the money could be earned from people who are aren't looking to change phone right now, and maybe wants to test the waters by seeing it in video reviews or in stores, and then pay the price. After all, isn't that what companies do? Take risks, and get rewarded if it works, instead of this extremely carefull investment (even Apple is more risky with its money for crying out loud).