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Though I'm not a singularitarian, I do think we are probably going to live an order of magnitude longer than our parents.

Given that, buying a house seems too... parochial.



You think we're going to live 10x longer than our parents, but without some kind of singularity/mind-in-a-computer thing? So you think we're biologically going to live to ~800?



Yes. Probably much longer.


Doesn't a 30-year mortgage versus life-long rent make houses seem like even a better value if you're going to live significantly longer?


It's more like the world is going to be radically different place in 50 years, and owning property in a formerly 'important' part of the world doesn't quite have that cachet anymore...


You think we're going to be living into our 800s?


No, he thinks our parents only lived 8 years.


I thought about this and I can construct some logic to support his phrasing.

Suppose we figure out how to end aging, but people continue to die at the same mortality rate as the 25-34 year old group. That's roughly 1/1000 per year.

(999/1000)^692 = 0.5

If we could nudge that mortality rate down a bit, 800 seems like a pretty good ballpark estimate.


Apparently actuarial tables put us at about 600 w/o aging (accidents, etc)


Perhaps he means 'order of magnitude' in base e. Or 2. Or even phi.




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