Who's to say? HBO is inking 10-year exclusive content deals just to lock Netflix out. These are huge deals, like Universal Pictures & Focus, that take away any chance of Netflix streaming many blockbuster titles all the way through 2023. At the same time, HBO has its own streaming platform ready to go head-to-head with Netflix the moment it makes sense to break away from cable (currently generating billions of their revenue, so not too soon). They have much more original content than Netflix, and are running trials of streaming-only subscriptions in other countries.

HBO likely can become Netflix faster than Netflix can become HBO.

HBO offers a subscription only service here in Norway, but I don't know anyone who has signed up for it. --Everyone I know (myself included) refuses to sign up for a service that requires a 1 year commitment and doesn't offer a trial period. On the other hand, lots of people went ahead and signed up for Netflix because they were offering a 1 month trial and you can cancel at anytime.

I'm not saying HBO won't succeed in the online space, but at least in Norway their arrogance has really hurt the perception that people have about them.

I wouldn't rule out Netflix. HBO has a great brand name, but Netflix has a better direct relationships with customers. And Netflix has access to capital too.