I was hanging out and talking to other people who are interested in betting markets online, we were just speculating. We mostly talk about sports betting but the election was such a big topic in betting that you couldn't avoid it and I ended up getting sucked into it.
I should have looked into it further, this has since been posted:
I don't have much experience with Intrade, but there must be a way to dump data from the site and investigate the orders and buys being made.
As that post says, putting down $1M to keep the odds more in line with a narrative of the contest being close is small change in the context of political spending today.
I had two people tell me that rumor. One heard it via friends on Wall St and the other read it in another forum, IIRC.
There must be something to explain the spread between Intrade and Betfair, that the market was being manipulated by those with a vested interest makes sense.
I should have looked into it further, this has since been posted:
http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=4756229
I don't have much experience with Intrade, but there must be a way to dump data from the site and investigate the orders and buys being made.
As that post says, putting down $1M to keep the odds more in line with a narrative of the contest being close is small change in the context of political spending today.
I had two people tell me that rumor. One heard it via friends on Wall St and the other read it in another forum, IIRC.
There must be something to explain the spread between Intrade and Betfair, that the market was being manipulated by those with a vested interest makes sense.