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No, he never said "VA is going to Obama, ...". He said "the probability of VA going to Obama and IA going to Obama and NC going to Romney ..." is X%.

This used to be at the "Paths to Victory" on the NYT, but they've been collapsed now.

We can say that somebody "nails" a prediction through both specificity and repetition. Nate had a modest amount of both. 50/50 and 49/50 are pretty specific. He did that well in 2008 and 2012, and similarly in 2010.




The OP said, "Nate Silver correctly predicted every single state" which is mistaken. His model is not designed to make predictions like "50/50" and "49/50" and he never claims to make those predictions, so I honestly don't know what you mean by, 'we can say that somebody "nails" a prediction through both specificity and repetition. Nate had a modest amount of both.'


For every state he listed which direction he thought it would go, and an associated probability.

Every state went the direction that he thought it would go.




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