Was abandoning all regional bases and most advanced radar in the area as soon as the war started part of the plan? Sending the USS Gerald Ford in even though it was already on extended deployment? Not having any minesweepers anywhere near the area? How about loading F35s with barbell weights to balance the aircraft, because they don't have radar systems? Pulling THAAD systems from South Korea within a week of starting the war?
That, and many more examples, point to an ill-thought-out decapitation strike, on someone else's timeline, with no contingency plan in the case that didn't severely cripple the Iranian government and state.
I’m quite curious about recruiting. I have only a N=1 observation, the kid who takes the orders at my favorite burrito place. He had been hyped about the Marines for two years, pre-enlisted at 16, just waiting to graduate from HS this spring. I didn’t see him for a few months, but in November it had all changed. “They are hostile to people like me.” (He’s of Mexican descent.)
A lot has happened since June of last year. Let’s not forget National Guard deployments to cities and threats of active duty / insurrection act. Threats of sending the army to fight cartels. I think the current situation is just an extension of craziness that would give anyone except the hardest of core supporters pause???
While reductionist, I think yours is a legitimate "in a nutshell" take. It would be interesting to see the relevant statistics over time, ideally broken down by geographical regions, their median incomes and the respective employment / military recruitment success rates.
I admit that I am partial to your view of the world. A mate in university, about a quarter of a century ago, made a rather striking observation: "In the US, military is a national jobs program for a nation that is psychologically hostile to jobs programs."
