Will it be another "correction" where it pulls back ~10% before going up another 15%?
The powers that be have too much invested in the market continuing to move up, you are basically betting that Trump, a bunch of billionaires and the FED are going to let the market crash to curb inflation and income inequality. That feels like a bad bet to me.
I meant that the Fed, Treasury, etc. have powerful levels they can pull to head off initial effects.
What can overwhelm them is if those effects cascade and compound into second-order effects, typically multiplied in magnitude.
That's essentially what the fuck-up in 2008 was. The government let Bear Stearns fail because it could handle the effects. What it couldn't handle (or at least, was barely able to) were the second order effects of credit tightening, mortgage derivative repricing, counterparty trust loss, etc. etc.
The government could absolutely prop up the AI bubble, possibly indefinitely. What it can't do is cover second order fallout, if it turns out a lot of risky money was somehow tied into the bubble.
The stock market isn't that important (though Trump does care about it). It's the bond market that everyone pays attention to when it stops working.
In a sense, stock market crashes are good for young people because you can buy stocks cheaper. In practice this isn't true because too many people are in debt and you get a balance sheet recession.
The powers that be have too much invested in the market continuing to move up, you are basically betting that Trump, a bunch of billionaires and the FED are going to let the market crash to curb inflation and income inequality. That feels like a bad bet to me.