Probably the case-study of how it caused America to collapse into a civil war in the next year or so, since the only way the Executive can continue its policy is by overtly ignoring rule of law and Americans appear to be growing weary of that from their Executive.
That'll likely ice the ambitions of the ultra-nationalists in other countries historically close to America for a generation, much like Germany trying its eugenics experiment iced the previously-quite-vocal eugenicists in the US for about a generation.
During The last American civil war, the North was the economic poeerhouse, and the slave states were relatively poor. This no doubt impacted the outcome.
Today the blue states are the economic powerhouse, and the red states are relatively poor. Should it come to it, I would expect the wealthy states to win.
These are the same rural areas rapidly turning against the administration due to its trade policy destroying global demand for their products, its foreign policy funding their international competitors, and its environmental policies lowering their land value by discouraging wind power development.
Certain rural areas like northern Idaho may be dominated by people moving there for ideological reasons, but this is not the norm.
What made you think people rapidly turned against the Trump administration? His approval ratings declined slowly since January. They are higher than they were most of 2017.[1]
Approval ratings don’t mean much for a lame duck president.
Look at the 2026 Senate polls in places like Iowa. Given Trump’s margin of victory in 2024 the Republicans should be crushing it, but they are struggling.
> Approval ratings don’t mean much for a lame duck president.
A term limited president can care less about approval ratings. This does not mean their approval ratings cannot be compared to their approval ratings.
> Look at the 2026 Senate polls in places like Iowa. Given Trump’s margin of victory in 2024 the Republicans should be crushing it, but they are struggling.
I do not accept Senate polls measure Trump support better than Trump approval polls. And 2026 Senate projections show Republicans losing 1 or 2 seats. Iowa is not 1 of them. Iowa polls did show the unpopular incumbent senator and a hypothetical Democratic opponent had similar support. But the unpopular incumbent senator announced she would retire. And hypothetical opponents poll better than real opponents many times.
I'm actually not. I am assuming other countries would watch that war break out and consider how excited they are about doing that on their own soil. That kind of civil war wrecks the economy of a developed nation, and power brokers in most developed nations are a lot more interested in protecting their wealth than exclusive nationalist ideals.
Practically, I strongly suspect a US that fell to civil war in this current climate would result in the country fragmenting, not entirely unlike the premise of the old "Cyberpunk 2020" fictional setting. DC would, for example, find it remarkably challenging to hold a California that blatantly broke off from it, especially if the federal military resources of that California defected. Especially if it caught allies in neighboring states upon that occurrence.
The end result would be no real "winners;" it'd be the implosion of the United States of America as a national unit into something more approximating some agglomeration of the pieces outlined in https://www.twincities.com/2013/11/16/which-of-this-writers-....
But even if the end result were (not unlike the last American civil war) a reunification with new laws... The US lost about 2 solid years of its GDP to war. That's not good for business and would encourage those with resources to lose to expend them stifling their own domestic "purity" nationalists.
