"just short nvidia" is not simple. Even if you believe it is overvalued, and you are correct, a short is a specific bet that the market will realize that fact in a precise amount of time. There are very significant risks in short selling, and famously, the market can stay irrational longer than you can remain solvent.

There is a wide space where LLMs and their offshoots make enormous productivity gains, while looking nothing like actual artificial intelligence (which has been rebranded AGI), and Nvidia turns out to have a justified valuation etc.

It's been three years now, where is it? Everyone on hn is now a 10x developers, where are all the new startups making $$$? Employees are 10x more productive, where are the 10x revenues? Or even 2x?

Why is growth over the last 3 years completely flat once you remove the proverbial AI pickaxes sellers?

What if all the slop generated by llms counterbalance any kind of productivity boost? 10x more bad code, 10x more spam emails, 10x more bots

You can generally buy options only a few years out. A few years is decidedly shorter than the lifetime of everyone reading this thread.

“Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.”

that's probably a good idea, either AI bubble explodes or competitors catch up