To be clear, I think it’s also hard to make inferences after 1913. But it’s easier (and particularly after 1945, 1971, etc.) because the US’s geopolitical status after those periods is at least analogous and a matter of econometric research.
> The period from 1776-1913 arguably had as many changes as the period from 1913 to 2025.
I'm not arguing it didn't. But I think in kind the US's global economic position didn't change substantially between full independence in 1783 and 1913. It grew during that period, but the idea of the US as a peer (and then dominant) economic world power is a distinctly post-WWI one.
