I only recently realized this. I was seeing geopolitics as an intricate, emergent behavior of complex systems made of hundreds of diplomats. I realized it was merely interpersonal relationships between a few country leaders who happen to have power over their respective states, military etc. This is not as different as kindergarten playground drama and squabbles, to some approximation of course.
I think that's the wrong lesson to take. The realist approach to international relations where states are controlled from the top as you describe is more legible. Instead I agree that it's really based on interpersonal relationships, but that those relationships are between CEOs, diplomats, immigrant communities, military officers, and of course also country leaders. This illegible network is what guides actually guides policy.
