NVDA stock does not trade at a huge multiple. Only 25x EPS despite very rapid top line growth and a dominant position at the eve of possibly the most important technology transition in the history of humankind. The market is (and has been) pricing in a slowdown.
> > the eve of possibly the most important technology transition in the history of humankind.
Funnily enough when you spend some months thinking into this intensively the result is that a monetary investment into the company that will bring about the singularity / AGI is the most irrational thing one can do.
If the enterprise is successful and the singularity/AGI is benign you won't need money anymore, if the experiment fail the possibility of things going rogue is very high, or even the panic from a possible series of rogue events.
So for the first time the rational thing would be to either spend those money to learn poker/chess/videogames or whatever game we will play with each other to feel cool while the AI takes care of everything else, or maybe outright spend money on coke and strippers given the chance of doomsday.
Their earnings will certainly decline or at least decelerate if capex slows. I’m just saying, if the market wasn’t pricing in a slowdown, NVDA would be trading at 40-60x next year EPS, not 25x.
most important technology transition in the history of humankind but Nvidia itself is not leading the software part? Are they selling shovels or why would they give that part of being the head develop the AGI and GOD?
By what metric? In my opinion actually solving all of the problems we currently have and man we have a lot of them past the obvious ones like climate change, that would be our greatest achievement.
The optimistic thinking is that with thousands/millions of tireless 24/7 brains at work on these problems we could address more problems in biology, chemistry, physics, materials science, etc. faster. It's a bold, but not unreasonable belief.
But that’s not something actually actionable. This isn’t a plan, it’s pure hope that maybe potentially if we just put enough money and energy into this, it will just magically solve our problems. Call me a luddite but that’s a crazy amount of copium.
Lots of hope for sure. This is the biggest most expensive scientific endeavor in my lifetime. I can think of a lot worse things to spend the money/carbon on.
