Well, this is a softball kind of garbage article. So let's look at harder numbers.

https://www.aspi.org.au/report/aspis-two-decade-critical-tec...

> The US led in 60 of 64 technologies in the five years from 2003 to 2007, but in the most recent five years (2019–2023) is leading in seven. China led in just three of 64 technologies in 2003–2007 but is now the lead country in 57 of 64 technologies in 2019–2023, increasing its lead from our rankings last year (2018–2022), where it was leading in 52 technologies.

The flip already was happening before Trump. He absolutely accelerated anti-immigrant, anti-work visa, and other variety of other-hate. But we were losing significant ground in technology to China before this.

Basically, if you want to go into a variety of fields, you learn in China, and you work in China.

Put simply, they are making factories for quantum chip production. And Photonic chips. https://thequantuminsider.com/2025/06/13/china-ramps-up-phot...

We're basically playing with mud and sand and used to be good at metal casting. Not even good at that any more. I'm embarrassed to be an American.

That report is just looking at the top 10% of cited published papers. China publishes huge numbers of garbage papers from paper mills and runs lots of citation rings. It also assumes that "tech leadership" comes from academia instead of companies, which don't tend to publish many papers.

In the long term, you were always going to lose the lead just cause China has 1.4B people. Your choices were turn into Western Europe, or turn into Russia.

China has a demographic collapse coming in a few decades. The long term is very much uncertain.

Apart from the US becoming Russia 2, that seems set at this point.

A "few decades" = a few decades +40-50 years that PRC workforce will hang around, i.e 2070/80, aka most of our/next generations useful lifespans. They're simply going to be milking the greatest high skill demographic divident in recorded history, basically roughly OECD combined in STEM, for any remotely useful extrapolatable/relevant "long term" period. Even then by 2100 their "hammered" demographics, factoring in PRC scale, they are going to produce more tertiary talent with shit TFR than US projected to gain via natural births and immigration (as in pre Trump, immigration rates). Depending on how retirement age extends workforce particapation (which it will, PRC retirement very young), they will still have decisive effective skilled labour pool advantages. That's without mentionining all the shit that suppresses PRC TFR, i.e. real estate prices, high skill absorbtion, are all downstream from current population levels/density. Once they shed 100s of millions, all those stressors will alleviate (abundance of housing, work opportunties) + one child couples will get like 4 wealth transfers from parents, i.e. might not get back to 2.1 replacement TFR, but if it gets to 1.7-1.8 (reasonable range with pronatal policies) that's a few 100m more births to workforce.

You're right, now that I checked, the demographics don't actually look all as bad as I thought. There are very few babies being born at the moment, but there was a surge roughly 10-15 years ago which will support the country for another 40-50 years. Thanks for correcting.

I’ve been following this as it’s very concerning for our startup ecosystem. So many startups come out of university research.

Only going to increase. The US is far worse than it was just a few months ago before major decisions like relocation were to occur.

Honestly the real question is why anyone is staying.

I doubt this is the answer, but I was talking to a European about this, and he said it's not like Europe is much better. If you look at the largest Europeam economies—Germany, the UK, and France—all are facing their own issues not unlike the US, right now.

Not the USA, but political turmoil in South Korea and even Japan has been pretty harsh lately (and India, might as well call Trump the USA’s Modi). Yes, Trump is an autocrat, but the presidential drama in South Korea has just been downright bizarre in comparison. Every western developed country right now is dealing with a declining birth rate combined with the inability to compete in infrastructure and manufacturing anymore (even Germany), especially when compared with China but also other Asian tigers.

It is clear that something is going on and it isn’t just an American thing. I can’t really tell you what that is though.

At least South Korea managed to impeach and arrest the guy who tried to stage a coup.

> 'their own issues not unlike the US'

I find this kind of opinion hard to understand. The difference is incredibly high contrast to me.

It requires a staggering amount of ignorance to be anything other than an incredibly high contrast difference. You aren’t crazy.

I think you're on the surface correct. But below the surface it can't be denied that in most of the western nations there is an increasing far right party on the knife edge of gaining power in each (Afd, RN, Reform UK, etc). We can hope that they remain out of power, but its hard to say that we won't see a bunch of Trumpist policy repeated in any one of those nations if they do take power.

The problem as I see it, is that the US was a frog in a boiling pot for ages before this. All trump did was drain the water.

The UK is comparable. In that its largely been white anted by Brexit. But you still would have quite a job introducing poms to daily gun violence statistics.

Are there any other modern western nations where you get locked up for sharing memes about the government at a border crossing?

UK again I guess, did destroy its trade relationships with the whole planet and sent itself back to the blitz without a german bomber in sight.

But most of the rest of the world seem stable in comparison.

I'm guessing they meant each country similarly encounters their own issues, not that countries encounter similar issues.

Thye arent (yet) facing a christian-fascist takeover, a ministry of War that wants to let the military practice in its own cities, economic policiy decided by the bonkers ideas the president had in the 80s and a paramilitary organization that is just randomly kidnapping citizens.

But sure, Germany is exactly the same as the US.

Many of us dont have a choice.

I dont have any familial ties of immigration. I dont know foreign languages to be competent.

I look at Europe as a whole also facing extremist conservative and fascist-adjacent rhetoric. I dont see those countries much better off. I know little of South America. I know Africa has a lot of inroads with China with Belt and Road.

Simply put: I'm trapped in the USA. My friends are trapped in the USA. My indirect family is either trapped in the USA, or they're pro-maga and approve this hellscape the country is being into.

Ive looked at making a commune with like-minded folks and becoming self sufficient, and walking away from this society. Cause there's not many choices, and fewer every day.

If you really believe that you’d be better off somewhere else, and you’re a US citizen in decent financial shape, you are absolutely not trapped in the USA.

I’ve in Europe for 7 years now, not to escape any particular political ideology back home but suffice it to say that I was motivated. If you’re motivated and willing to endure some discomfort there are multiple options for European immigration available to you.

Making any statement about “Europe” is painting with a broad brush, that said I am not particularly bullish on Europe now, for various reasons. But I can’t think of any European country that has the same problems as the US; they all have their own problems, as well as just different ways of doing things.

I’ve never lived in an agrarian commune but I can say with certainty that it would be my absolute last choice.

How long until we start getting asylum seekers from the US. Because you are talking about above board, welcomed methods of migration. If I was in the US, the first thing I would do is no longer be in the US by whatever means possible.

But go where? And if I enter irregularly (illegally cross), and request asylum, what then?

I likely won't know the language. I can't legally work. I'm now an "illegal alien", and people everywhere hate them (USA isn't special in that hate).

I could try English speaking countries? Canada is not encouraging, given the 51st state threats. England, again, not at all welcoming. Iceland is suffering badly with a whole bunch of things.

I dont know about Australia or New Zealand.

The USA is also very big. Lot of places to hide.

I'm surprised, with the salary gap I'd think there would be many more people still moving from Europe to the USA.

That salary gap is not particularly important. People who prioritize salary are more likely to leave the academia for industry than take a new academic job in another country.

The salary gap that matters is the gap between academic and industry salaries. That gap is wider in the US, especially for juniors. Because the academia is a better option relative to the alternatives in Europe than in the US, Europeans are more likely to choose it. That leads to more competition for jobs and grants. Many then find it easier to get a job in the US.

As a European mid-career academic in California, the value of money is just different here. Everyday living is very expensive, while extras such as international travel and fancy tech gadgets are cheap. Many academics find themselves in the weird financial spot, where they can easily afford the cost of living and possibly even early retirement, while having no hope of home ownership on a single academic salary. (Meanwhile, in my home country, even grad students often buy homes.)

European housing markets are diverse. I can buy a home in Seattle but I never dreamed of buying one in Lausanne Switzerland. Switzerland is the odd ball out as their academic salaries are pretty good though (at least my post doc was a good deal). I have friends working in other parts of western Europe who don’t make much but have pretty good lives, retirement is basically covered and they have good job satisfaction, so what else do you really need in life?