1. The leading companies in LLMs: Anthropic and OpenAI are both not profitable and rely on huge amount of continuous investment (from "successes" like SoftBank who continuously invested in WeWork) to even stay afloat.
2. Each model from GPT3.5 to GPT 4 to 5 has been 10x more expensive to train. However, we have long ago entered the era of diminishing returns where 4 was a big improvement from 3.5 but 5 was a mediocre improvement (and to some, a regression) from the previous model. That suggests, unless a miracle occurs, 6 will be extremely expensive to train to imperceptible improvements.
5. Anthropic are very early in their journey to be already scraping the barrel, yet they recently 180 on their ToS and admit that they, in fact, will be training on your chats (suggesting that they can't get more/quality data elsewhere): https://www.anthropic.com/news/updates-to-our-consumer-terms.
6. OpenAI and Anthropic are both connected to CoreWeave, Nvidia, Microsoft, Google. What is funny is that CoreWeave is also connnected/dependent on Nvidia, and so is Microsoft and Google. Those companies' stocks are a major part of the US economy at the moment. https://www.reuters.com/business/dominant-ai-trade-confronts.... "Meanwhile, the combined market cap of the 10 biggest AI plays, including Nvidia, Broadcom and Microsoft -- stood at $18 trillion, BCA said in a note last week. That amounts to about 33% of S&P 500 stock market capitalization, up from around 15% in late 2022, according to BCA."
10 companies in the same sector, comprising 33% of the S&P capitalization is a 100% bubble, and if anything, one of the biggest ever to exist. And I, for one, can't wait for it to pop so I don't have to read hype booster articles like this on the front page of HackerNews.
2. Each model from GPT3.5 to GPT 4 to 5 has been 10x more expensive to train. However, we have long ago entered the era of diminishing returns where 4 was a big improvement from 3.5 but 5 was a mediocre improvement (and to some, a regression) from the previous model. That suggests, unless a miracle occurs, 6 will be extremely expensive to train to imperceptible improvements.
3. The latest "features" from OpenAI:
- study mode https://openai.com/index/chatgpt-study-mode/
- the rumor for an office suite https://www.computerworld.com/article/4021949/openai-goes-fo...
show that they are running out of ideas what to do.
4. Anthropic is settling on huge cases: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45142885 while struggling with usage vs monetization: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44715471
5. Anthropic are very early in their journey to be already scraping the barrel, yet they recently 180 on their ToS and admit that they, in fact, will be training on your chats (suggesting that they can't get more/quality data elsewhere): https://www.anthropic.com/news/updates-to-our-consumer-terms.
6. OpenAI and Anthropic are both connected to CoreWeave, Nvidia, Microsoft, Google. What is funny is that CoreWeave is also connnected/dependent on Nvidia, and so is Microsoft and Google. Those companies' stocks are a major part of the US economy at the moment. https://www.reuters.com/business/dominant-ai-trade-confronts.... "Meanwhile, the combined market cap of the 10 biggest AI plays, including Nvidia, Broadcom and Microsoft -- stood at $18 trillion, BCA said in a note last week. That amounts to about 33% of S&P 500 stock market capitalization, up from around 15% in late 2022, according to BCA."
10 companies in the same sector, comprising 33% of the S&P capitalization is a 100% bubble, and if anything, one of the biggest ever to exist. And I, for one, can't wait for it to pop so I don't have to read hype booster articles like this on the front page of HackerNews.