Departure flights of Americans to foreign countries is up 2.9%. If that is indicative of the normal post pandemic recovery and travel growth then down 3.8% might be down roughly 6% from what it would have been. But it's possible the trend wouldn't match America's travel growth or more egress from America is being driven by related factors.
I can't read the article (paywall) - does the "international arrivals" include Americans travelling overseas, or only non-Americans?
If the latter, then indeed it's not dramatic. But if the former, then the number of contingent trips to the US might have dropped a lot, and is hiding mixed in with regular unaffected traffic of USians.
https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2025/08/26/have-for...
A statistically significant drop, but not exactly plummetting.