You mentioning rock stars make me wonder if being a scout for a record label is similar. A band that's going to define a new genre or movement will sound nothing like anything currently popular, so it seems you have to identify the things that sound nothing like what's popular but that sound like what will be popular.
The returns aren't as dominated by just a few big successes, though. Although I suppose one-hit wonders are a manifestation of something similar: All the returns come from one song out of who knows how many dozens a band or artist may have come up with.
You mentioning rock stars make me wonder if being a scout for a record label is similar. A band that's going to define a new genre or movement will sound nothing like anything currently popular, so it seems you have to identify the things that sound nothing like what's popular but that sound like what will be popular.
Publishers, from what I can tell, have the same problem. One thing that I'm struck by is how many novels that we now consider classic, or novelists who we now consider important, barely scraped into publication. Tolkien famously saw Lord of the Rings in print because of Rayner Unwin, the then nine-year-old (I think) son of a publisher liked LOTR. John Barth and William Goldman have both written about how close they were to pursuing other opportunities—a PhD and insurance, IIRC. A Confederacy of Dunces was only published after O'Toole killed himself. Melville's poetry was self-published IIRC. Virginia Woolf needed to start her own press.
There are probably others with similar stories.
Not only that, but I have to wonder who barely didn't make the cut. Given the large number of writers who skated into print, there must be at least an equally large group who "should" have, but left no marks on history sufficiently legible to trace.
I think about these issues a lot for two reasons. The first is that I've had many close calls with literary agents, all of whom eventually said, "I like you, but not in that way." The second is the technological environment: now that ebooks mean self-publishing is much more pragmatic than it used to be, people who really want to publish have a means of going outside the conventional system. Some power-law-style stars have already emerged (Amanda Hocking, the 50 Shades of Grey author). Others probably will. Maybe I'll be one. But if I'm not, I don't think I'll be too bothered: I mostly want to write.
Yeah, 99% of self-published books are probably un- or poorly edited dreck, but that 1% count for a lot.
With self publishing now, it is likely that unpopular works will persist. Over time there is more of a chance that anything great that was passed over will eventually find it's audience. Whereas in the past that stuff that didn't get published may have only existed as a single or few copies and was eventually lost to the passage of time.
That would be great, but it assumes a writer with marketing and promotion skills. Even if a large potential audience exists for a book, reaching that audience can be very difficult, which is a big part of the value large publishers offer.
I am loathe to admit record labels providing any value, but they do this as well, helping good (and bad) artists rise above the noise floor to reach a mass audience.
Back in the deep, dark days of the internet, when Napster was new, I believe this was one of the arguments that Def Leppard used against file-sharing.
Namely, that record companies are like VC funds, and the massive cash they make from Def Leppard (or Lady Gaga or whoever) pays for the 1000's of other acts that they fund and then fail.
But with self-publishing mechanisms we no longer need the record labels to risk all that money to produce bands that will likely fail. Now people can just put stuff on youtube, most will fail, but some like Justin Bieber, and Skrillex will get noticed.
The returns aren't as dominated by just a few big successes, though. Although I suppose one-hit wonders are a manifestation of something similar: All the returns come from one song out of who knows how many dozens a band or artist may have come up with.