What is the value of all companies that weren't picked by YC? Are there any notable black swans that are known YC-rejects?
It would be interesting to do an analysis of those companies that were rejected by YC, and see how many "black swans" were present in those rejects, as well as maybe relative value of the rejected startups vs the chosen ones to see how effective the YC selection process is.
There aren't any black swans yet that I know of, though there are at least two companies we rejected that must have valuations close to a hundred million, judging from the amounts they've raised. What worries me most is the possibility that we missed some we never heard about, because they either died or didn't happen.
The chance of that having happened or happening in the future is surely 100% at the stage you invest at. There are also undoubtedly many companies who could have been black swans that you did/will invest in who don't for execution's sake.
It would be interesting to do an analysis of those companies that were rejected by YC, and see how many "black swans" were present in those rejects, as well as maybe relative value of the rejected startups vs the chosen ones to see how effective the YC selection process is.