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There is going to be nothing that will "explain" why or which companies could be the big winners. Trying to is falling into the narrative fallacy trap Taleb writes about.

Best strategy is to "win" in other ways, and let the cards fall where they may.



Taleb has an exact translation of what Paul is talking about -- Taleb would, and has, described what Paul is saying as "construct a portfolio of cheap high-risk long-dated options, each of which has a high probability of losing all of your money but also uncapped upside". "Uncapped upside" being the key, of course.

Taleb's new book coming out soon will describe all this in a lot more detail -- should be very interesting.




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