I have seen two predominant forms of risks factored in by the larger incumbents waiting to be disrupted. One is, like the author puts it, the risk due to breakage. Be very mindful of this risk and insure against it if possible or change something to avoid/lower the risk (sorry, we don't wash Luxury cars).
The other risk factor is pure CYA. Nobody wants to prepare a costing worksheet for a customer quote where your cost is too low because you didn't factor in the various overheads. Only after the annual financial statements are made will you find out if you lost money on the product or not. Do you want to be the guy who buys at $10 and sells for $20 only to find out before bonus-time that overhead was $90 per unit? So you factor in the cost of capital, inventory hold charges, shipping delays, warehouse pallet transfer cost, foreign exchange currency buffer, and tons of other charges. This makes it appear that your cost is high and so it is only natural to charge more for the product. Boeing isn't going to sell an Arduino + LED light for $100. It will be $500 because of risk of breakage and be $5000 by the time all the CYA risks have been tacked on by six levels of middle-managers.
The wonderful thing about CYA risk factors is that they help justify your high prices and if you are able to be lean, they give you a terrific margin. THIS is what you want to disrupt. You can charge less than the incumbents because they are playing it way too safe as nobody wants to lose their neck for selling a product at a loss. But don't charge so low that risk of breakage ends your business. The good thing is that the risk of breakage is not as large as the CYA risks in most every costing sheet that I have seen. YMMV depending on the industry/product.
Not to nitpick but managing supply-chain risk is a lot more complicated than insurance.
In most cases insurance is going to be more expensive than simply eating the cost of breakages, it's really something you have to protect against rare-and-expensive events.
If you are high volume/low cost or low volume/high cost this can be a very different situation than medium volume/medium cost in terms of impact.
> Not to nitpick but managing supply-chain risk is a lot more complicated than insurance.
I agree. I manage an ERP system at a pharma-manufacturer. I added a YMMV precisely because of the different situation - different impact reasons. My main point was:
Incumbent Sales Price SP1 = Cost of (Base + Risk + CYA-buffers) + Predetermined Margin
Incumbent Profits PR1 = SP1 - Total Actual Cost
Startups Sales Price SP2 = Cost of (Base + Risk) + Predetermined Margin
Startups Profits PR2 = SP2 - Total Actual Cost
If you assume Cost of (Base + Risk) to be relatively on-par then SP1 > SP2 because SP1 includes CYA-buffers. The problem is that when incumbents become lean and shave off overhead, they can continue to command high prices due to entrenched contracts and make a much larger profits. This reinforces their position in the industry, making it harder for startups to compete.
Sidenote: While in a perfectly competitive market, the sales price should be determined by the intersection of supply and demand curves, instead of being a predetermined markup based on cost, in most contract manufacturing environments, all the costs are known, markups are expected, and thoroughly negotiated.
Another large factor is high overhead industrys is customer acquisition. In a world of CYA people often take multiple detailed bids, but that means you need to charge for not just that bid but all the failed bids. Say a bid is 2% of total costs, and 1/5 bids win now that's an extra 10% overhead.
The other risk factor is pure CYA. Nobody wants to prepare a costing worksheet for a customer quote where your cost is too low because you didn't factor in the various overheads. Only after the annual financial statements are made will you find out if you lost money on the product or not. Do you want to be the guy who buys at $10 and sells for $20 only to find out before bonus-time that overhead was $90 per unit? So you factor in the cost of capital, inventory hold charges, shipping delays, warehouse pallet transfer cost, foreign exchange currency buffer, and tons of other charges. This makes it appear that your cost is high and so it is only natural to charge more for the product. Boeing isn't going to sell an Arduino + LED light for $100. It will be $500 because of risk of breakage and be $5000 by the time all the CYA risks have been tacked on by six levels of middle-managers.
The wonderful thing about CYA risk factors is that they help justify your high prices and if you are able to be lean, they give you a terrific margin. THIS is what you want to disrupt. You can charge less than the incumbents because they are playing it way too safe as nobody wants to lose their neck for selling a product at a loss. But don't charge so low that risk of breakage ends your business. The good thing is that the risk of breakage is not as large as the CYA risks in most every costing sheet that I have seen. YMMV depending on the industry/product.