The rate of improvement has slowed significantly. And chasing benchmarks is making everything worse IMO. Opus 4.1 is worse than Sonnet 3.7 to me :/.
I think the future will be:
1. Ads and quantization/routing to chase profits
2. Local models start taking over. New companies will slide in without the huge losses and provide what Claude/OpenAI do today at reasonable margins
3. Apple/Google eat up lots of the market by shipping good-enough models with iOS/Android
The rate of improvement has slowed significantly. And chasing benchmarks is making everything worse IMO. Opus 4.1 is worse than Sonnet 3.7 to me :/.
I think the future will be:
1. Ads and quantization/routing to chase profits
2. Local models start taking over. New companies will slide in without the huge losses and provide what Claude/OpenAI do today at reasonable margins
3. Apple/Google eat up lots of the market by shipping good-enough models with iOS/Android