“It’s only going to get better”
"For LLMs to keep improving, we need one of three things: more data, more power or a breakthrough."
"Breakthroughs are rare."
This is very short sighted. The amount of research and papers coming out on AI is staggering. Maybe raw power gaining breakthroughs are rare, but you literally only need one to have exponential impact.
If you look back at the history of LLMs, its a never ending timeline of "well, they will never be able to do this" that have been proven wrong, going all the way back to the early 20-teens.
Seems like a very strange bet to make at this point in time.
My bet isn't against progress. It is against magical timelines peddled by those with VC incentives. I don't want to build a career on hype, sprinkled with "maybe", "could" or "soon" and ignores the very real diminishing returns and bottlenecks we face today.
E.g: They kept predicting widespread fully autonomous vehicles. Significant progress has been made but a vehicle taking you from A to B without human oversight remain elusive.
Demand for great software developers isn't fading. Let's lean in and master our craft, not limit our growth by over-relying on AI.
Admittedly, I could be wrong. Maybe next year AI will be able to fully build software on its own and software engineering is dead. If you think that's true, why aren't you planning your career change right now?
If we land somewhere in the middle, what skills can I develop to become a better vibe coder which aren't just becoming a better software engineer generally? When I know exactly what to do, AI is just a faster typist. But when I'm stuck, if I outsource the solution entirely to AI, how do I actually learn and grow?
This is very short sighted. The amount of research and papers coming out on AI is staggering. Maybe raw power gaining breakthroughs are rare, but you literally only need one to have exponential impact.
If you look back at the history of LLMs, its a never ending timeline of "well, they will never be able to do this" that have been proven wrong, going all the way back to the early 20-teens.
Seems like a very strange bet to make at this point in time.