Given what you're vaguely implying -- that the switches would be nowhere near the first thing a pilot would normally think of in the kind of situation -- what are the odds the pilot asking on record "did you flip the fuel cut-off switch?" is the one who actually flipped the switches and was simply trying to fool the would-be investigation (even knowing they all are about to perish)?
> what are the odds the pilot asking on record "did you flip the fuel cut-off switch?" is the one who actually flipped the switches and was simply trying to fool the would-be investigation (even knowing they all are about to perish)?
This is such a diabolical mind-game that it never occurred to me. Like, they would all die, why would he want to incriminate someone else? But yet, people are weird and crazy. And maybe he didn't go down as a killer and decided to incriminate the other pilot? Anyway, it is totally possible to have happen. Sadly there are no cameras the cockpit, and a camera in the cockpit would really have help to find who did what.
Just a random example and I have no indication that that's what is going on here, but life insurance generally doesn't pay out for suicide so you'd need to make your death look like an accident or caused by someone else if you want to pull of a scam. Pointing this out to say it could be much more banal than some diabolical villain that gets off of killing hundreds of people.
I'd say the odds are 50%. The odds of the opposite scenario - where the pilot who said "did you flip the fuel cutoff" wasn't the one who did it are also 50%.
Based on the cutoffs for both engines being flipped 1 second apart, the above exchange being caught on the CVR, and then within 10 seconds the (presumably the other) pilot switching them back to Run, it's pretty clear that this was a deliberate act.
There is likely much more on the CVR than what has been released in the preliminary report - which seems to have been carefully sanitized so it doesn't implicate either pilot. I expect the investigators have a much better idea but not one that they are 100% confident in making public yet.
I've been reading commentary on aviation forums like PPRuNe and the consensus amongst pilots and others in the field seems to be that "electrical glitch" is a near impossibility. Also, the report states "and immediately thereafter, the Engine 1 and Engine 2 fuel cutoff switches transitioned from RUN to CUTOFF position one after another with a time gap of 01 sec". They wouldn't have said the switches transitioned from one position to another if they weren't certain, they would have said something like a voltage change consistent with cutoff occurred. Several people have pointed out that these are large mechanical switches that make a distinctive noise when moved and the CVR is sensitive enough that it would have picked it up. Also, it's important to note that no safety bulletins were issued to Boeing as they would have in the case of some electronics issue.
Now, when I say deliberate act, I don't necessarily mean "pilot suicide" though that is certainly a strong possibility.
