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Depends, cutting off strait of hormuz could easily change that calculus a bit. Things can get unpredictable from here on now.


from what i read, the Strait of Hormuz is mostly used for shipping to Asia now, with the US being a net exporter of oil, KSA and others getting more options to ship via the Red Sea instead, and overall blocking this would be a minor annoyance, not lasting long with 2 carrier strike groups on the way, and most to-be-blocked shipments going to China - shooting themselves in the foot. It seems the historical memories of the 70's mideast oil beef are just that. But what do i know.


Futures do not disagree with you atm.




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