> Yet every time I write about it, I'm dismissed as an uninformed outsider.
No; you're being dismissed as someone who is entirely too credulous about arguments that don't hold up to scrutiny.
Edit: and as someone who doesn't understand basics about what rationalists are trying to accomplish in certain contexts (like the concept of a calibration curve re the example you brought up of https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/grading-my-2021-predictions). You come across (charitably) as having missed the point, because you have.
No; you're being dismissed as someone who is entirely too credulous about arguments that don't hold up to scrutiny.
Edit: and as someone who doesn't understand basics about what rationalists are trying to accomplish in certain contexts (like the concept of a calibration curve re the example you brought up of https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/grading-my-2021-predictions). You come across (charitably) as having missed the point, because you have.