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You are clearly dismissing his experience without much though. If a park ranger stopped you in the woods and said there was a mountain lion up ahead would you argue that he doesn't have enough information to be sure from such a quick glance?

Someone spending a lot of time to build one or multiple skills doesn't make them an expert on everything, but when they start talking like they are an expert on everything because of the perceived difficulties of one or more skills then red flags start to pop up and most reasonable people will notice them and swiftly call them out.

For example Elon Musk saying "At this point I think I know more about manufacturing than anyone currently alive on earth" even if you rationalize that as an out of context deadpan joke it's still completely correct to call that out as nonsense at the very least.

The more a person rationalizes statements like ("AI WILL KILL US ALL") these made by a person or cult the more likely it is that they are a cult member and they lack independent critical thinking, as they outsourced their thinking to group. Maybe their thinking is "the best thoughts", in-fact it probably is, but it's dependent on the group so their individual thinking muscle is weaken, which increases their morbidity (Airstricking a data center will get you killed or arrested by the US Gov. So it's better for the individual to question such statements rather than try to rationalize them using unprovable nonsense like god or AGI).






If a park ranger said "I looked over the first 2% of the park and concluded there's no mountain lions" - that is, made an assessment on the whole from inspection of a narrow segment - I don't think I would take his word on the matter. If OP had more experience to support his statement, he should have included it, rather than writing a shallow, one-sentence dismissal.

I think the recently popular way of saying "I looked over 2% and assumed it generalizes" these days is to call the thing ergodic.

Which of course the blog article is not, but then at least the complaint wouldn't sound so obviously shallow.


That's great, I'm definitely going to roll that into my vocabulary.



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