There are few things I hold strong opinions on, but where I do if they're also out of step with what most people think I am very vocal about them.
I see this in rationalist spaces too – it doesn't really make sense for people to talk about things that they believe in strongly but that 95%+ of the public also believe in (like the existence of air), or that they don't have a strong opinion on.
I am a very vocal doomer on AI because I predict with high probability it's going to be very bad for humanity and this is an opinion which, although shared by some, is quite controversial and probably only held by 30% of the public. Given the importance of the subject, my confidence, and that fact I feel the vast majority of people are even wrong or are significantly underweighting caetrosphohic risks, I have to be vocal about it.
Do I acknowledge I might be wrong? Sure, but for me the probability is low enough that I'm comfortable making very strong and unqualified statements about what I believe will happen. I suspect others in the rationalist community like Eliezer Yudkowsky think similarly.
How confident should other people be that random people in conversation or commentors on the internet are at accurately predicting the future? I strongly believe that nearly 100% are wrong in both major and minor ways.
Also, when you say you have a strong belief, does that mean you have emptied you retirement accounts and you are enjoying all you can in the moment until the end comes?
I'm not kypro, but what counts as "strong belief" depends a lot on the context.
For example, I won't cross the street without 99.99% confidence that I will survive. I cross streets so many times that a lower threshold like 99% would look like insanely risky dart-into-traffic behaviour.
If an asteroid is heading for earth, then even a 25% probability of apocalyptic collision is enough that I would call it very high, and spend almost all my focus attempting to prevent that outcome. But I wouldn't empty my retirement account for the sake of hedonism because there's still a 75% chance I make it through and need to plan my retirement.
I see this in rationalist spaces too – it doesn't really make sense for people to talk about things that they believe in strongly but that 95%+ of the public also believe in (like the existence of air), or that they don't have a strong opinion on.
I am a very vocal doomer on AI because I predict with high probability it's going to be very bad for humanity and this is an opinion which, although shared by some, is quite controversial and probably only held by 30% of the public. Given the importance of the subject, my confidence, and that fact I feel the vast majority of people are even wrong or are significantly underweighting caetrosphohic risks, I have to be vocal about it.
Do I acknowledge I might be wrong? Sure, but for me the probability is low enough that I'm comfortable making very strong and unqualified statements about what I believe will happen. I suspect others in the rationalist community like Eliezer Yudkowsky think similarly.