Only if you assume the current amount of knowledge work being done, or the amount of output from knowledge work, is the maximum amount possible or desired. Which is incorrect.
Every software company has a backlog of 1000 features they want to add, everywhere has a shortage of healthcare workers. If AI makes developers on a successful product 20% more efficient, they won't fire 20% of developers, they'll build 20% more features.
The problem is the "successful product" part; for a decade or more unsuccessful products were artificially propped up by ZIRP. Now that money isn't free these products are being culled, and the associated jobs along with them. AI is just an excuse.
> Only if you assume the current amount of knowledge work being done, or the amount of output from knowledge work, is the maximum amount possible or desired. Which is incorrect.
My point is simple:
Why would I hire 100s of employees when I can cut the most junior and mid-level roles and make the seniors more productive with AI?
> Every software company has a backlog of 1000 features they want to add, everywhere has a shortage of healthcare workers. If AI makes developers on a successful product 20% more efficient, they won't fire 20% of developers, they'll build 20% more features.
Exactly. Keep the seniors with AI and no need for any more engineers, or even just get away with it by firing one of them if they don't want to use AI.
> Now that money isn't free these products are being culled, and the associated jobs along with them. AI is just an excuse.
The problem is "AI" is already good enough and even if their jobs somehow "come back", the salaries will be much lower (not higher) than before.
So knowledge workers have a lot more to lose, rather than gain if they don't use AI.
> Why would I hire 100s of employees when I can cut the most junior and mid-level roles and make the seniors more productive with AI?
Because at competent companies juniors and mid-level employees aren't just cranking out code, they're developing an understanding of the domain and system. If all you cared about was cranking out code and features, you'd have outsourced to Infosys etc long ago. (Admittedly, many companies aren't competent.)
> Exactly. Keep the seniors with AI and no need for any more engineers, or even just get away with it by firing one of them if they don't want to use AI.
This doesn't make any sense. I asked ChatGPT and it couldn't parse it either.
> The problem is "AI" is already good enough and even if their jobs somehow "come back", the salaries will be much lower (not higher) than before.
This much is true but tech salary inflation was, again, largely a ZIRP phenomenon and has nothing to do with AI. Junior developers were never really worth $150k/year right out of university.
> Because at competent companies juniors and mid-level employees aren't just cranking out code, they're developing an understanding of the domain and system.
So many companies like Microsoft, Meta, Salesforce and Google (who are actively using AI just did layoffs) are some how not 'competent companies' because they believe with AI they can do more with less engineers and employees?
> This doesn't make any sense. I asked ChatGPT and it couldn't parse it either.
Made total sense for the companies I mentioned above, who just did layoffs based on 'streamlining operations' and 'effciency gains' with AI just this year (and beat their earnings estimates).
> This much is true but tech salary inflation was, again, largely a ZIRP phenomenon and has nothing to do with AI. Junior developers were never really worth $150k/year right out of university.
It's more than just that, including an increasing over-supply of software engineers in general and lots of them with highly inflated salaries regardless of rank. The point is that it wasn't sustainable in the first place and roles in the junior to mid-level will see a reduction of salaries and jobs.
Once again, knowledge workers still have a lot more to lose, rather than gain if they don't use AI.
> So many companies like Microsoft, Meta, Salesforce and Google (who are actively using AI just did layoffs) are some how not 'competent companies' because they believe with AI they can do more with less engineers and employees?
Is there any evidence the layoffs are actually due to AI, or due to a hiring correction using AI as an excuse?
We both already know it's very obvious that the layoffs are due to them getting away with actually doing more with less using AI.
Evidently:
1. After the layoffs that happned at Meta, it is reported that they are building (and using) AI coding agents to become even more efficient, same with Google. [0]
2. Duolingo went all in and replaced their contract workers with AI. [1]
3. Microsoft CEO says "up to 30% of the company’s code was written by AI" [0] then laid off 3% of workers (6K employees), including engineers. [2]
4. Business Insider went "AI first" with 70% of employees using ChatGPT and then lays off 21% of their workers. [4]
5. After Salesforce laid off 1,000 their workers in Feburary 2025, they now said that "the use of artificial intelligence tools internally has allowed it to hire fewer workers" and additionally said:
"We view these as assistants, but they are going to allow us to have to hire less and hopefully make our existing folks more productive." [5]
The list goes on and on in 2025 alone and this further strengthens my whole point that companies will be doing more with less knowledge workers and these workers still have a lot more to lose, rather than gain if they don't use AI.
You're falling for marketing pieces, there's been multiple discussions on HN from people working at these companies calling out that all of this as bullshit. Nobody's been replaced by AI.
I appreciate you citing sources, but all of those quotes are from CEOs pumping their stock prices with lies--which, at the moment, is the best known use of AI.
Exactly. Less of them will be needed given that a few of them will be more productive with AI vs without it. That is the change which is happening right now.
Not more.