When the market pool of seniors will run dry, and as long as hiring a junior + AI is better than a random person + AI, it will balance itself.
I do believe the “we have a tech talent shortage” was and is a lie, the shortage is tech talent that is willing to work for less. Everyone was told to just learn to code and make 6 figures out do college. This drove over-supply.
There is still shortage of very good software engineers, just not shortage of people with a computer science degree.
In the US, “Junior” pilots typically work as flight instructors until they have built up enough time to no longer be junior. 1500 flight hours is the essential requirement to be an airline pilot, and every hour spent giving instruction counts as a flight hour. It’s not the only way, but it’s the most common way. Airlines don’t fund this; pilots have to work their way up to this level themselves.
The 1500 hour rule was instituted by congress at the request of pilots unions not the FAA or any other regulator. Europe only requires 250 hours and has a similar aviation safety track record to the US in the 21st century.
Accepting that people need to be trained within a system. As of now it's easy enough for software devs to get started without formal training. I don't see that changing. Smart people will be able to jump directly to senior level with the help of AI.
My concern is for the juniors - there’s going to be far fewer opportunities for them to get started in careers.