This is a complex set of constraints, and people in Arizona, Nevada and Colorado etc have different perspectives on this. In my mind Lakes Powell/ Mead running low is somehow congruent to the /ZB Treasury futures contract (30 year) running lower, somehow there's a common economic invariant lurking in there.
The somewhat brighter bullet points: Northern California reservoirs are doing prety well, and the Bureau of Reclamatn can again kick the can by draining Flaming Gorge but i think this only works every few years:
Climate Town did a great video breaking down where a lot of this ends up, worth the watch if you want some more detailed background on the agreements in place that are leading to this happening: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XusyNT_k-1c
Tldr: "the region lost 27.8 million acre-feet of groundwater since 2003, roughly the same volume as the total capacity of Lake Mead — the nation’s largest reservoir — and that the decline accelerated rapidly over the past decade. These groundwater losses accounted for more than twice the amount taken out of reservoirs in the region during that time."
