The discussion in Polymarket revolves around the trustworthiness of the market creator and their resolution criteria. Any discussion here that doesn't consider those things is missing the forest for the trees. The market isn't really about Jesus. Jesus is just the engagement hook. It's the reason this post has 147+ comments on Hacker News and $500k+ in market transactions on Polymarket. There's very little stopping the market creator from citing a guineapig pet lovers blog as his source with a claim that Jesus has returned as an adorable little guy with too much rizz to be anything other than the second coming.
Fair resolution is the single biggest issue with prediction markets. I don't see how a market resolution based on the occurrence of a supernatural event isn't a problem.
This is Polymarket, not Manifold. It's not "anyone can create a market and can resolve it however they want". Polymarket creates the markets and resolves them, so an unfair resolution could undercut their reputation and hurt their business. People know what "Jesus returning" means and if they interpret it some other way people won't just say "oh well I guess that was technically within the criteria".
Again, this is in the article! If you want to argue it's a problem, you should start by responding to what the article has to say on the subject, not just asserting it from scratch as if it isn't discussed!
Especially good callout in the context of Jesus returning. It would look very different today, but there was one who was pretty damn close to pulling it off - would be curious when poly market calls the bet. Chatgpt summary -
* Sabbatai Zevi (17th century): One of the most famous false Jewish Messiahs. He gained a massive following across the Jewish world. However, when faced with the Ottoman Sultan's choice between conversion to Islam or death, he converted. This conversion was a devastating blow to his followers and essentially a public "recantation" of his messianic claim, though not necessarily an admission of it being a lie on his part as much as a desperate act to save his life. Many of his followers were deeply disillusioned, while others continued to believe in him even after his conversion, developing complex theological explanations for his actions.
The settlement criteria for most of these is pretty strict and clearly laid out in the terms.
> The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
That is pretty sparse, but I suspect Polymarket has a vested interest in making sure this resolves appropriately (as noted in the article). I do like the use of the guineapig with rizz anyway.
