The second calculation is just spin, no numbers. Any time I see rhetoric like "refinanced debt" or "rolling over debt" I know to just ignore it. You picked it up from a partisan source trying to scare you. The idea is to liken it to irresponsible credit card behavior by consumers or whatever.
But in reality federal interest payments as a fraction of revenue are like 18%. That is well under the median consumer debt load, and very manageable.
The better metaphor, if you insist on using one (don't), would be to say that federal debt is like carrying a mortgage, where the title reflects the US economy as a whole, something that grows somewhat faster than housing real estate.
I literally gave you numbers. It's quite hard to estimate growth of interest/gdp ratio because of how many different securities are there but here's my try: https://chatgpt.com/share/682b4741-9bbc-8007-94fc-848198c9c3...
I got +0.006 this year, which will bring total ratio to 0.043, it's also 15% growth a year. We had this ratio last time in 97.
> But in reality federal interest payments as a fraction of revenue are like 18%.
... and rapidly growing.
> That is well under the median consumer debt load, and very manageable.
From what I gather ratio between household disposable income to household total debt is about 1:1. Government ratio is closer to 1:7. This is very different ratio.
However I'm not insisting on comparing household finances to gov finances, I'm not sure you can compare those two. At least not in a world where government controls money supply.
You keep accusing me in being partisan where in fact I go and do my own research. I think it's you who made up the mind that debt is not an issue and disregard anything which goes against your (partisan if you will) view of the world.
US has big budget problem. It will pay itself one way or another eventually (most likely through inflation/currency devaluation, affecting everyone and a lot), but so far it was mostly accumulating instead. The real solution is, of course, optimize spending (i.e. health care & military) and (what's even more important) tax the rich. Similarly to what we used to have in 50s. But we never gonna get there because, you know, the rich holds all the cards. So instead we'll get through a suffering of blown up currency, and I, personally, think we should be doing everything we can to avoid it. I don't think it's a problem of today, tomorrow or next year. But it's a problem and further we delay it worse the resolution would be.
You choose one very particular detail, critic it, don’t provide neither justification why it’s wrong or what would be better and behave like you’re correct about everything.
But in reality federal interest payments as a fraction of revenue are like 18%. That is well under the median consumer debt load, and very manageable.
The better metaphor, if you insist on using one (don't), would be to say that federal debt is like carrying a mortgage, where the title reflects the US economy as a whole, something that grows somewhat faster than housing real estate.