>There is zero risk the government couldn't pay it's dollar debts if there is still a US government.
The real concern is not that the government cant pay it, it is that the government has to pay it out of revenue alongside obligations, leading to runaway inflation and economic damage.
In theory, governments can run on new printed money. It just makes for a terrible market to conduct business.
High inflation wipes out currency denominated debt holders and creates a terrible environment for investment and contracting.
It increases transaction costs to a level that is often prohibitive.
> In theory, governments can run on new printed money.
Anyone who thinks this is an infinite money glitch for governments should see what has happened when other governments have tried it. Hint: Search for “hyperinflation”
If you just start printing money to spend it, the currency crashes in value, which necessitates printing even more money to maintain the same level of purchasing power, which crashes the currency even further. It’s how you end up with people paying for bread with trillion dollar bills. Sure you can keep printing that money, but acting like it’s a cheat code or even a positive thing is to ignore all of economic history.
Yep, I have lived in a country during such a hyperinflation, when all the ordinary people, including myself and my family, have lost their entire lifetime savings.
Initially, my salary as an engineer has decreased quickly in value to the equivalent of $2 per day. Then, for a long time, my salary has been approximately doubled every month, so that by the beginning of the month it was worth the equivalent of about $2 per day, but by the end of the month it was worth only the equivalent of about $1 per day.
Before the hyperinflation started, I had saved all the money for buying a new car. Unfortunately, I had not predicted what would happen, so I have not closed a deal quick enough. In a few weeks you could no longer buy even a TV-set with that money. A short time later, you could barely buy some decent food with it.
Buying some electronics or programming book could require the salary for 2 months. Funny times.
Inflation only correlates with money supply growth if there are real resource constraints, otherwise you just get new businesses and services. Also people also tend to save more when they can, which takes money out of circulation.
That's one possibility, but it depends a lot on where the money gets injected and where the inflation happens. If it balloons real estate prices before wages catch up, you don't necessarily get that growth of investment into productive areas. Instead it gets more expensive and riskier to start a business, with higher rent payments, and meanwhile a lot of asset-owners retire on their newfound wealth. It gets harder to convince lenders and investers to put money into real production when speculating on land and collecting rents starts getting such good consistent returns.
When there is inflation, nobody can save anything, because the value of any savings decreases too quickly.
Everybody who has made prior savings loses them, unless they predict the inflation and buy something valuable, like real estate, with all the money they had.
As long as there is excessive inflation, any money earned must be spent immediately, before losing too much value. For ordinary people and small businesses this makes it very difficult to buy expensive things, because it is hard to save money for that and credits may become too risky.
What about the labor market? Where are you getting more workers given unemployment is extremely low and the current administration is against immigration?
That should lead to salary increases which could lead to inflation.
The real concern is not that the government cant pay it, it is that the government has to pay it out of revenue alongside obligations, leading to runaway inflation and economic damage.
In theory, governments can run on new printed money. It just makes for a terrible market to conduct business.
High inflation wipes out currency denominated debt holders and creates a terrible environment for investment and contracting.
It increases transaction costs to a level that is often prohibitive.