For anyone interested in more serious journalism about the Church, I can't recommend The Pillar enough. The guys who run it have a lot of connections and know how the Church works inside and out. They had identified Prevost as being one of the top contenders in the days leading up to the conclave [1].

In their final "gut check" analysis, one of the two editors said his gut was going with Prevost. (Unfortunately behind a paywall, but here for reference [2].)

[1]: https://www.pillarcatholic.com/p/why-prevosts-papal-prospect...

[2]: https://www.pillarcatholic.com/p/conclave-day-1-head-check-h...